Obama Should Be Very Concerned (InfoGraph)

Quick note: Some of you may be wondering why I haven't posted any analysis of the Republican 
Convention. This will be coming early next week as I have decided to wait and give that analysis as a whole, rather than as a day by day breakdown. Tune in next week for a more timely post! For now, though, courage...

As many of you know, I spend a good deal of my time reading political articles and blogs.On my daily read list is the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls. I noticed something very interesting in yesterday's polls. Take a look:

Image a Screen Shot of RCP average on 8/30/12 Note Abt Poll Sample Added by Blogger

Did you notice it? No, not the super-obvious thing I added about polling samples. Something else. Still no? Well, lets add a bit of emphasis to help you:

Image a Screen Shot of RCP average on 8/30/12 Note Abt Poll Sample and highlight of Obama Numbers
Added by Blogger

Do you get it now? No???

OBAMA STILL ISN'T ABOVE 50%, even in the four polls that use samples ridiculously stacked in Obama's favor using a fantasy Democratic skew, President Obama cannot get above 50% in any poll.

Friends, I'm usually not one for conventional wisdom but I do know that incumbents who cannot get above 50% in ANY POLL (at least without a ridiculous sample skew) are in deep trouble. If I was the Obama campaign, I'd be very worried. Especially since, now that Mitt Romney is OFFICIALLY nominated, he can start spending money. And he has plenty of it. Game so very on.

Note to my regular readers: If you are not already a fan of Biblical Conservatism on Facebook, you might want to Click Here and like us. In addition to posting each day's blog, I'll now be posting a selection of the many news articles I review daily for you to peruse on your own! It's my version of Rush Limbaugh's "Stack of Stuff!"

Let the Liberal Poll Cooking Begin!

It's election season, and the more trustworthy polling organizations are beginning to show a tough year for Democrats. So what is the official Drive-By Media response? Cooked polls!  Today we've found a fine example of this precise practice in the form of an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll that was published this past Friday. 

The outcome of this poll tries to say that President Obama has a fair lead over Mitt Romney if the election was held today, with Obama leading Governor Romney 49% to 43%.  This stands in stark contrast to the historically far more reliable Gallup tracking poll (that takes data daily and offers a 3 day rolling average) which shows Governor Romney leading the President 48% to 43%. 

So how in heaven's name does NBC come up with this data?  The devil is, as always, in the details. For starters, this poll's sample includes 9% more Democrats than Republicans (43% Democrat or Democrat leaning and 34% Republican or Republican leaning). Considering the question asked was not "what party if any are you registered with" but rather "which party do you most identify with" this is a clear skew that helps Obama look better. (It resulted in a +5% skew for Obama and a -6% skew against Romney...changing the predicted result.)

It is reasonable to assume that there are about the same number of Republican and Democrat leaning individuals in America as a base with maybe 10-15% true middle ground believers. Actually, as I've highlighted before, there are consistently more conservatives than moderates and consistently more moderates than liberals when it comes to a person's self-identity.

At the end of last year, 40% of Americans considered themselves conservative, 35% considered themselves moderate and 21% considered themselves liberal, according to last fall's Gallup Survey. Given a reasonable assumption that the vast majority of conservatives are Republicans and the vast majority of liberals are Democrats and splitting the moderates right down the middle, you get 48.5% Republican leaners, 38.5% Democrat leaners. So to take a poll that is 43% Democrat is highly dishonest.

There is, of course, corroborating evidence against this poll. For example, the poll asked about the preferred Congressional election outcome for each voter. The result was 46% preferring a Democrat Congress and 44% preferring a Republican Congress. This stands in stark contrast to Rasmussen's Generic Congressional Ballot poll which showed that 46% of likely voters prefer a generic Republican against 36% who preferred a generic Democrat. So this poll's skew resulted in a +12% net gain for the Democrats and a -2% net loss for the Republican. (Even in a cooked liberal poll, Republicans are close to beating Democrats!)

My friends, this is only the beginning. The Drive-By Media is not concerned with reporting the truth. They are concerned with skewing results to make Obama look better and to dishearted conservatives and Republicans so that we don't fight hard to defeat Democrats. We will not let them.

Fact is this election year is looking very bad for liberals and Democrats. Game on.