Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 1)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?



Ohio - RCP Avg: Obama +5.5% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+ 6.6%Ohio Voter Registration: +1% Republican

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +5%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For the Columbus Dispatch to get Obama to +9%, they also had to oversample Democrats by +9%.

- For Gravis Marketing to get Obama to +1%, they had to oversample Democrats by 10%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Florida - RCP Avg: Obama +3%. - Avg Democrat Oversample: 8%
Florida Voter Registration: +5% Democrat                                                                                              

- For Gravis Marketing to get Obama to +1%, they had to oversample Democrats by 7%.

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +3%, they had to oversample Democrats by +9%

- For the Washington Post to get Obama to +4%, they had to use a sample of only 161 Likely Voters and a margin of error of 11%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

I hope I've painted a nice, clear picture for you. In Ohio, to get Obama to an average of +5.5% the polls had to oversample Democrats and average of 6.6%. Unskewed and assuming that 90% of the Republicans would vote for Romney, we're looking at Mitt having a lead just of about .5%.

In Florida, to get Obama to an average of +3% the polls had to oversample Democrats by an average of 8%. Adjust that to an even turnout (which is a very reasonable guess this election) and assume 90% of the Republicans properly weighted back in, you see Romney leading by 2.5% in Florida.

This post will be continued Monday with a look at Wisconsin and Virginia.