Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 2)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's continue to look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?


Wisconsin - RCP Avg: Obama + 6.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+6%

Wisconsin Voter Registration: +4% Democrat

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +7% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

- For NBC to get Obama to +5% they had to oversample Democrats by +5%

- For CBS to get Obama to +6%, they had to oversample Democrats by +8%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Virginia - RCP Avg Obama +3.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample +3% Democrat

Virginia Voter Registration: +3% Republican- For NBC to get Obama to +2%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For Suffolk to get Obama to +2% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)


In Wisconsin, to get Obama to a +6.7% average lead they had to oversample Democrats by an average of 6%. Again, assuming 90% of undersampled Republicans reweighted will give you a much smaller Obama lead of 1.1%, well within the margin of error.

In Virginia, when you take that 3.7% lead and the 3% oversample of Democrats to get to even (or 6% oversample of Democrats against