Barack Obama's leads are evaporating with key demographics, at least if you believe the polls. (I for one believe that the polls are now beginning to reflect reality after months of cooked polls.) According to a USA Today/Gallup Poll published earlier this week, Mitt Romney leads the President 50 to 46% in the Swing States. (Nationally, Gallup's 7-Day Tracking Poll has Romney leading the President by 7%).
But there are some further key demographic details where Romney is really setting himself up for victory.
- Romney maintains his solid lead with male voters in the Swing States, ahead of the President 52% to 44% (that's a 8% lead for those of you from Palm Beach County, FL).
- Romney is now within 1 point of the President with female voters, trailing the President by merely 49% to 48%.
- Romney is leading Obama 46% to 36% with Independents according to the other most recent swing state poll, POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll (since the USA Today/Gallup poll did not give this particular breakdown). Just to give you a rough idea, the President would need to win 83% of the undecided Independents to win Independents (and that by 1%). That's simply not going to happen. (Remember, historically undecided voters this late break hard for the challenger).
Remember when women were Obama's victory firewall? Yeah, about that. The President is ostensibly tied with Governor Romney. He's also losing men by 8% and Independents by 10%. This is bad, bad news for the President.
I will go on record right now: If the President only wins women by 1%, loses men by 8% and loses Independents by 10%, do you know what we'll be calling Mitt Romney come November 7th? Mr. President-Elect.
Showing posts with label Independent Voters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Independent Voters. Show all posts
Friday, October 19, 2012
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Obama has an Independent and Undecided Voter Problem
President Obama has two major problems this election, despite the Drive-By Media's questionable polls that show him leading Governor Mitt Romney by a couple of points.
Number one, Governor Romney leads with Independents. He has continued to lead President Obama with Independents pretty much since he was the nominee. Now in 2008, President Obama beat Senator John McCain significantly with Independents. He cannot win without winning Independents, friends. That's just a fact.
Now the President has another issue. He still cannot get above 50% in almost any poll (without a preposterous Democrat skew in the sample anyway) and is below 50% in most battleground states. According to political strategist Dick Morris (who is most famously known for his work with Bill Clinton in both his campaigns and Presidency), had this to say:
The fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.
So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!
- Dick Morris, "Why the Polls Underestimate the Romney Vote"
Our friends over at Examiner.com found a similar problem for the President in swing states. Using a recent Purple Strategies poll, Examiner had this to say:
For the purpose of their analysis, precise calculations will be made from the polling data and the undecided voters will be calculated to go 80 percent for Romney. Odds are likely they will support Romney in higher percentages.
The five states, in dark red in the map above, (shown below here) are worth 84 electoral votes. Both candidate needs most if not all of these states to win the election. The light blue and pink states on the map above are all the other states not included in these five surveyed by Purple Strategies and covered in this article....
These numbers today indicate a strong chance that Mitt Romney will win the 84 electoral votes of these five states. But before the real votes are cast, we still have three presidential debates and just over six weeks of campaigning yet to occur. That's a long time and a lot of opportunities for a lot to happen and be done by both campaigns. There is time for polling numbers to change but fewer voters who may change their minds. In each of the states in the Purple Poll of those five swing states, at least 90 percent of the voters in each states reported they are unlikely to change their preferences between now and November.
- "Mitt Romney likely win of five key swing states shown by Purple Poll surveys" - Examiner.com
While the President is shown to have a few point lead in the states in question (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado) he remains under 50% in all five states. Given that it is reasonable to surmise that 80% of undecided voters at this point in the game will likely go against Obama (after all he's had nearly 4 years to get them to vote for him), Governor Romney can be projected to win those five states, and thus the White House.
Here's the Examiner's projected Electoral College map:
Compare that, interestingly enough, to the Biblical Conservatism model put together earlier this week (and published on our Facebook Page which you should go like, by the way):
Now, in my estimate I projected Minnesota and Pennsylvania as potentially going red because Obama can't get over 50% in those states this close to the election. Either way, those two states won't change the outcome. Now let's look at these two models compared to the University of Colorado projection:
You'll notice the states in question amongst the three models (PA, IA, MI, MN and NV) could only change the outcome if Obama won every single one of those states. Each model is based on a different concept. Mine is using states where Obama is not above 50% and acting on the expectation that undecided voters will break for Romney hard as they have in previous elections. (Yes I'm aware my projections include a couple of rosy scenarios in MN, MI and PA, but again those three are not in a position to impact the election if I am incorrect.) The University of Colorado's projection is based on economic and historical factors. Examiner's is based on a lot of the same factors mine is, although they consider MN, MI and PA as likely to go to Obama.
Either way, friends, both the Undecided Voter and the Independent Voters add up to a poor scenario for Obama. Keep remembering that, and keep your heads up, friends!
Number one, Governor Romney leads with Independents. He has continued to lead President Obama with Independents pretty much since he was the nominee. Now in 2008, President Obama beat Senator John McCain significantly with Independents. He cannot win without winning Independents, friends. That's just a fact.
Now the President has another issue. He still cannot get above 50% in almost any poll (without a preposterous Democrat skew in the sample anyway) and is below 50% in most battleground states. According to political strategist Dick Morris (who is most famously known for his work with Bill Clinton in both his campaigns and Presidency), had this to say:
The fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.
So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!
- Dick Morris, "Why the Polls Underestimate the Romney Vote"
Our friends over at Examiner.com found a similar problem for the President in swing states. Using a recent Purple Strategies poll, Examiner had this to say:
For the purpose of their analysis, precise calculations will be made from the polling data and the undecided voters will be calculated to go 80 percent for Romney. Odds are likely they will support Romney in higher percentages.
The five states, in dark red in the map above, (shown below here) are worth 84 electoral votes. Both candidate needs most if not all of these states to win the election. The light blue and pink states on the map above are all the other states not included in these five surveyed by Purple Strategies and covered in this article....
These numbers today indicate a strong chance that Mitt Romney will win the 84 electoral votes of these five states. But before the real votes are cast, we still have three presidential debates and just over six weeks of campaigning yet to occur. That's a long time and a lot of opportunities for a lot to happen and be done by both campaigns. There is time for polling numbers to change but fewer voters who may change their minds. In each of the states in the Purple Poll of those five swing states, at least 90 percent of the voters in each states reported they are unlikely to change their preferences between now and November.
- "Mitt Romney likely win of five key swing states shown by Purple Poll surveys" - Examiner.com
While the President is shown to have a few point lead in the states in question (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado) he remains under 50% in all five states. Given that it is reasonable to surmise that 80% of undecided voters at this point in the game will likely go against Obama (after all he's had nearly 4 years to get them to vote for him), Governor Romney can be projected to win those five states, and thus the White House.
Here's the Examiner's projected Electoral College map:
Compare that, interestingly enough, to the Biblical Conservatism model put together earlier this week (and published on our Facebook Page which you should go like, by the way):
Now, in my estimate I projected Minnesota and Pennsylvania as potentially going red because Obama can't get over 50% in those states this close to the election. Either way, those two states won't change the outcome. Now let's look at these two models compared to the University of Colorado projection:
You'll notice the states in question amongst the three models (PA, IA, MI, MN and NV) could only change the outcome if Obama won every single one of those states. Each model is based on a different concept. Mine is using states where Obama is not above 50% and acting on the expectation that undecided voters will break for Romney hard as they have in previous elections. (Yes I'm aware my projections include a couple of rosy scenarios in MN, MI and PA, but again those three are not in a position to impact the election if I am incorrect.) The University of Colorado's projection is based on economic and historical factors. Examiner's is based on a lot of the same factors mine is, although they consider MN, MI and PA as likely to go to Obama.
Either way, friends, both the Undecided Voter and the Independent Voters add up to a poor scenario for Obama. Keep remembering that, and keep your heads up, friends!
Friday, September 7, 2012
Obama is Losing Independents by 15% in Democrat Poll
The news is a week old, I'm afraid, but there's been so much else going on I've been backed up on important stories to cover. However, it was the Democrat group Democracy Corps (run by former Clinton adviser James Carville) who broke the story that in their poll, the President is losing to Mitt Romney with Independents by 15%. That's huge, especially considering that Obama won Independents by 8% in 2008. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that's a 23% swing in favor of the GOP from 2012).
The overall poll claimed that the President was leading Governor Romney by 2%...but that does include a +6% Democrat oversample. Translation: In the real world with an appropriately even sample or even a couple point GOP advantage which can be legitimately be guessed given the difference in voter engagement, it is reasonable to presume that Romney is actually beating Obama by about 3-4% (which is what the only poll of likely voters that doesn't include a fantasy electorate with a Democrat turnout advantage is showing).
To my regular readers:
Are you a fan of Biblical Conservatism on Facebook? If not, you want to be! Not only is every day's blog posted on the page but there is also a steady stream of links from the news articles I read daily to create this blog as well as some great humor via political memes and cartoons! Click here to find the page and like us!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)