Liberal polls are continuing to use their bad polling samples to claim Obama is winning. It's officially ridiculous. They are continuing to use samples that show a Democrat turnout advantage that, by the way, didn't exist in 2010 and shouldn't be expected in 2012.
We've got Democracy Corps that used a polling sample of 41% Democrat, 30% Republican and 28% Independent (Democrat advantage +11%) to achieve an Obama lead of +5%.
Then we've got a Reuters poll that used a sample of Democrat 47%, Republican 38%, Independent 15% - the sample included Independent leaners. (Democrat advantage +9%) to arrive at an Obama lead of +3%
Earlier this week we had a Washington Post-ABC Poll which used a sample of Democrat 32%, Republican 26% and Independent 37% (Democrat advantage +6%) to achieve an Obama lead of +1%
Even a Fox News poll has Obama up +5%. I know liberals are out there saying "HA! EVEN FOX NEWS says Obama is winning!" Except one problem: In Fox News' latest poll is oversampling Democrats by +6% (which baffles me) in THEIR poll, using a sample of Democrats 42%, Republicans 36%, Independents 19%.
Rasmussen remains the only grownup in the room with their polling sample. They are predicting a turnout in 2012 of +1 in favor of Republicans (a conservative estimate). Now, and here's the shocking fact (sarcasm) this reflects the 2010 election turnout within 1%! (Source)
Gallup was using a similar polling sample to Rasmussen, and was showing Obama and Romney neck and neck. That was, until the Obama Administration began to pressure Gallup behind the scenes to change their sample to make it more favorable to Obama.
Fox, to be honest, I think is spending too much time trying to get the liberal media and liberals in general to stop making fun of their "lack of balance." (Which is the most hilarious example of the pot calling the kettle black I've ever seen!) which leads them to use samples that the Left would approve of this time around.
Now friends, I think the polls that will really matter will be within 1-2 weeks of the election. Because that's when the Media is going to have to worry about their reliability ratings and they'll stop using bad samples. Remember that in 1980 only a few weeks before the Election of 1980 Gallup had Carter beating Reagan (Reagan won in a landslide).
Friends, the only polling sample that is making a reasonable guess at the real election turnout for 2012 of +1 for the GOP is Rasmussen (the same poll that was rated most reliable in 2012). And that poll has Romney beating Obama by 3%.
Fact of the matter is the Drive-By Media isn't using polls to show public opinion. They are trying to shape it. We must not let them. We are headed for victory in November, both in Congress and the Presidency. Game on.
Showing posts with label Democracy Corps. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Democracy Corps. Show all posts
Friday, September 14, 2012
Friday, September 7, 2012
Obama is Losing Independents by 15% in Democrat Poll
The news is a week old, I'm afraid, but there's been so much else going on I've been backed up on important stories to cover. However, it was the Democrat group Democracy Corps (run by former Clinton adviser James Carville) who broke the story that in their poll, the President is losing to Mitt Romney with Independents by 15%. That's huge, especially considering that Obama won Independents by 8% in 2008. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that's a 23% swing in favor of the GOP from 2012).
The overall poll claimed that the President was leading Governor Romney by 2%...but that does include a +6% Democrat oversample. Translation: In the real world with an appropriately even sample or even a couple point GOP advantage which can be legitimately be guessed given the difference in voter engagement, it is reasonable to presume that Romney is actually beating Obama by about 3-4% (which is what the only poll of likely voters that doesn't include a fantasy electorate with a Democrat turnout advantage is showing).
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Obama is losing, so the Drive-By Media Cooks Some Polls
It's happening, friends. The Drive-By Media is releasing cooked poll after cooked poll to show President Obama as stronger than he really is in head to head polls against Mitt Romney. We talked about it in late April when the offender was NBC. This time we have two offenders: Reuters/Ipsos and Tipp Online. Both have Obama beating Romney. Both have skewed poll samples to favor Obama.
Important to note is what these two polls do to the Real Clear Politics average. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, what Real Clear Politics (henceforce referred to as RCP) does is take all polls in a given election and give a straight average, whether the poll is of adults, registered voters, or likely voters.) What these two polls have done is given the President a slim lead in the RCP average of 46.2% to Romney's 46%. (So close it's a statistical tie.) However, this includes our two doctored polls. More on this later.
Before we go into the two polls, let's once again set the baseline in this country for conservatives, moderates, and liberals. As I've said so many times before, this is far more accurate than naming party affiliation, because so many people in the South especially are still registered as Democrats but vote conservative...holdovers from a past where a conservative Democrat was a real thing. However, it is reasonable to presume that conservatives will vote Republican and liberals will vote Democrat, leading the moderates as the group who may or may not vote down their party line or be a swing voter.
So, in 2011, Gallup did, as in past years, conduct a series of polls to establish the ideological demographics of this nation. In January 2012 Gallup published their National Ideology Poll. At that time, 40% of Americans self-identified as conservative, 35% self-identified as moderate and 21% self-identified as liberal. So a legitimate assumption would be to presume 40% of Americans to lean Republican and only 21% to lean Democrat. Even if we assume 20% of those moderates are true swing voters (as conventional wisdom proclaims) and split the remaining 15% with the two parties as moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, that means 47.5% Republican leaners and 28.5% Democrat leaners. (Translation, they need ALL the true swing voters to win.)
The first offending poll is Tipp Online. Tipp shows the President beating Mitt Romney 46% to 43% amongst registered voters (not likely voters, registered voters). Even Tipp admits that "Race Tightens, Obama Lead Over Romney Narrows To 3 Points" in their headline. But there's a problem with their polling sample. They gave Democrats a 7% advantage! You have to look at the very bottom of this poll to find it, but when Tipp asked the individuals polled which way lean politically, 38% self-identified as Democrat, 31% self-identified as Republican, and 27% self-identified as independent.
That's a 7% advantage simply handed to the Democrats...one that does not exist in reality! The only way to justify this poll is to claim, erouneously, that 65% of all moderates lean Democrat while only 35% lean Republican.
The second offending poll is Reuters/Ipsos. The poll shows Obama with a mildly comfortable lead of 49% to 42% over Mitt Romney (not likely voters, registered voters). There's just one problem...they went and handed a 9% advantage to Democrats in this poll! Whooops! Their polling sample was 47% Democrat leaners to 38% Republican leaners! Holy cow! Once again, this does not match up with the real electorate and their political ideologies!
The only way to justify this poll is to eroneously claim that 74% of self-identified moderates lean Democrat. Nice try, but no dice. This does not add up to any reality.
So back to that RCP average that we talked about. Let's take the other polls involved, including two 3-day rolling average polls in Gallup and Rasmussen; as well as two polls of likely voters rather than registered voters in Rasmussen and Democracy Corps (ironically, these guys are a Democrat polling organization yet they're being more honest).
Rasmussen has Romney defeating Obama 49% to 44%, a 5% margin of victory (2% above the margin of error). Gallup has Romney defeating Obama 47% to 44%, a 3% margin of error (exactly the margin of error). Democracy Corps has a tie of 47% to 47% for both candidates.
These three polls have an average of Romey 47.75% to Obama 45.5%. This means Romney averaging a +2.25% margin of victory. Compare this to the RCP average including the cooked Tipp and Reuters polls, which shows Obama beating Romney 46.2% to 46%. So by publishing cooked polls, these two organizations push the RCP average from Obama losing to Obama winning.
Friends, the Drive-By Media likes to do this to dishearten conservatives, to make us give up on winning the White House. They want to make you believe that Obama will be re-elected so you won't work hard to defeat him. But what polls like this show is that they are very worried. They are trying to convince you (and themseleves) that Obama is a stronger candidate than reality shows. We must not let him. We will defeat Obama in 2012!
Important to note is what these two polls do to the Real Clear Politics average. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, what Real Clear Politics (henceforce referred to as RCP) does is take all polls in a given election and give a straight average, whether the poll is of adults, registered voters, or likely voters.) What these two polls have done is given the President a slim lead in the RCP average of 46.2% to Romney's 46%. (So close it's a statistical tie.) However, this includes our two doctored polls. More on this later.
Before we go into the two polls, let's once again set the baseline in this country for conservatives, moderates, and liberals. As I've said so many times before, this is far more accurate than naming party affiliation, because so many people in the South especially are still registered as Democrats but vote conservative...holdovers from a past where a conservative Democrat was a real thing. However, it is reasonable to presume that conservatives will vote Republican and liberals will vote Democrat, leading the moderates as the group who may or may not vote down their party line or be a swing voter.
So, in 2011, Gallup did, as in past years, conduct a series of polls to establish the ideological demographics of this nation. In January 2012 Gallup published their National Ideology Poll. At that time, 40% of Americans self-identified as conservative, 35% self-identified as moderate and 21% self-identified as liberal. So a legitimate assumption would be to presume 40% of Americans to lean Republican and only 21% to lean Democrat. Even if we assume 20% of those moderates are true swing voters (as conventional wisdom proclaims) and split the remaining 15% with the two parties as moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, that means 47.5% Republican leaners and 28.5% Democrat leaners. (Translation, they need ALL the true swing voters to win.)
The first offending poll is Tipp Online. Tipp shows the President beating Mitt Romney 46% to 43% amongst registered voters (not likely voters, registered voters). Even Tipp admits that "Race Tightens, Obama Lead Over Romney Narrows To 3 Points" in their headline. But there's a problem with their polling sample. They gave Democrats a 7% advantage! You have to look at the very bottom of this poll to find it, but when Tipp asked the individuals polled which way lean politically, 38% self-identified as Democrat, 31% self-identified as Republican, and 27% self-identified as independent.
That's a 7% advantage simply handed to the Democrats...one that does not exist in reality! The only way to justify this poll is to claim, erouneously, that 65% of all moderates lean Democrat while only 35% lean Republican.
The second offending poll is Reuters/Ipsos. The poll shows Obama with a mildly comfortable lead of 49% to 42% over Mitt Romney (not likely voters, registered voters). There's just one problem...they went and handed a 9% advantage to Democrats in this poll! Whooops! Their polling sample was 47% Democrat leaners to 38% Republican leaners! Holy cow! Once again, this does not match up with the real electorate and their political ideologies!
The only way to justify this poll is to eroneously claim that 74% of self-identified moderates lean Democrat. Nice try, but no dice. This does not add up to any reality.
So back to that RCP average that we talked about. Let's take the other polls involved, including two 3-day rolling average polls in Gallup and Rasmussen; as well as two polls of likely voters rather than registered voters in Rasmussen and Democracy Corps (ironically, these guys are a Democrat polling organization yet they're being more honest).
Rasmussen has Romney defeating Obama 49% to 44%, a 5% margin of victory (2% above the margin of error). Gallup has Romney defeating Obama 47% to 44%, a 3% margin of error (exactly the margin of error). Democracy Corps has a tie of 47% to 47% for both candidates.
These three polls have an average of Romey 47.75% to Obama 45.5%. This means Romney averaging a +2.25% margin of victory. Compare this to the RCP average including the cooked Tipp and Reuters polls, which shows Obama beating Romney 46.2% to 46%. So by publishing cooked polls, these two organizations push the RCP average from Obama losing to Obama winning.
Friends, the Drive-By Media likes to do this to dishearten conservatives, to make us give up on winning the White House. They want to make you believe that Obama will be re-elected so you won't work hard to defeat him. But what polls like this show is that they are very worried. They are trying to convince you (and themseleves) that Obama is a stronger candidate than reality shows. We must not let him. We will defeat Obama in 2012!
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