Biblical Conservatism: PPP

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

RCP Avg Strikes Again with Misleading Polls - This Time in Ohio

According to the Real Clear Politics Average in Ohio, the President is leading Governor Romney by 1.7% in the so-called "poll of polls." As I've said before, I am willing to at least give RCP the benefit of the doubt, but still, this average includes four polls that either by accident or design use highly Democrat skewed polls:

RCP is using four polls with skewed samples:

Survey USA, uses a +7% Democrat sample to get Obama to +3%. If we unskew that data to a +3% Democrat Sample, using Survey USA's own internal data of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents are polling, we find Romney with a slight lead of 44.7% to Obama's 44.0%

CBS/Quinnipiac, uses a +9% Democrat Sample to get Obama to +5%. If we unskew that to a +3% Democrat sample, and using CBS/Quinnipiac's own data, we find Obama's lead has cut to one tenth of the poll's prediction to 0.5%: Obama 45.8% to Romney 45.3%

Gravis Marketing used a sample of +9% Democrat, and that showed a tie. If we unskew it to a +3% Democrat sample and use Gravis' own internal data,

The PPP and Fox News polls could not be accurately unskewed because they did not publish their internal data did not provide the necessary breakdowns of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents intended to vote.

So apparently Obama is in fact losing Ohio, very slightly. This makes a difference. Lets look at the RCP "No Tossup" Map, shall we? This is the map using the skewed Ohio sample:

Now let's look at the map using our new data that unskews the samples to +3% Democrat instead of +7-9% Democrat:

One other issue for the President is he's at an average of 46.3%. Well below 50%. Historically you see undecided voters this late (12 days before the election) swing hard to the challenger. I'll even be generous and call it 2:1 for Romney. When that happens it's 51.7% Romney, 48.3% Obama.

Bottom line, exactly what I've been telling you is true: the RCP average, when a Drive-By Media source throws a wrench into the mix and skews the average, it spoils the entire sample. Here in reality, Romney is winning. And that's all that matters.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Scenarios for a Romney Electoral College Win

The above image is the Real Clear Politics "No Tossups" Map as of Monday, October 15th. (The only adjustment that has been made is a color change to Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire as they are officially "tossups.") What I did last week on the Biblical Conservatism Facebook Page is show a few scenarios to show Mitt Romney's path to victory.

Scenario One: Romney wins a few small states plus Virginia. While the RCP average has Obama still winning in Virginia but it includes a Quinnipiac poll that includes a +3% Democrat sample in a state with a +3% Republican registration advantage and a PPP Poll that uses a +6% Democrat sample. Throw those two polls out you get Romney winning by 2% in Virginia. Combine that with the fact that Suffolk University has decided VA is over and expects Romney to win, we'll call Virginia safe for Romney. Combine that with three small statesL Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada (all three of which the Obama lead is within the margin for error) and Romney wins.

In this scenario, Mitt wins Virgina (which we've established already is likely) and Ohio. That's all he would need to win the Electoral College. Anything else is gravy that helps build a mandate.

What if Mitt Romney doesn't win Ohio? Then what? Some are continually reminding us, no Republican in recent memory has won the White House without Ohio. However, there is a simple scenario where Romney can win without Ohio. Simply put, if Mitt wins Virginia (which we've established is likely) and then wins Wisconsin (or Michigan, or Pennsylvania) and either Nevada or Iowa.

Now we look at a very likely scenario. Many voters remain undecided a mere three weeks from Election Day. History has shown that undecided voters break for the challenger and break hard. The above scenario involves a 3:1 break in Romney's favor. The result is a huge win for Governor Romney. It's not an unrealistic scenario, friends. In fact it's a highly realistic scenario. In these states the Real Clear Politics average has only one of these states with Obama at 50%, and that's Wisconsin (he's at exactly 50% by the way, and there's a margin for error.) In this case, Mitt gains Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia by winning 75% of undecided voters.

Even using the Real Clear Politics average (which we've discussed is not exactly the most reliable way to judge the race) it becomes clear Mitt Romney has a path to victory that is easy to see. President Obama has less options. Despite the narrative being attempted bythe Left recently, the Romney path to victory is clear.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Real Clear Politics Unrelable: Old Polls, Skewed Polls

Please note all polls quoted herein are from the morning of Wednesday, October 10th. The Internet has since trolled me yet again with RCP updating their polls to remove some old ones.

Something old, something new, something borrowed, something skewed. With the exception of the borrowed, that's the makeup of the Real Clear Politics average, aka the "poll of polls."

Before I continue, I'd like to say that I use Real Clear Politics (RCP) a lot. As a source for a blog, it's phenomenal. It compiles basically every poll published anywhere in America leading up to the election. Furthermore, I'd like to note that I am not directly accusing RCP of intentional deception. I'm not exonerating them, either. I will, however, give RCP the benefit of the doubt on this, and simply assume it for the sake of today's article that the problems with these averages is a case of "a chef is only as good as his ingredients."

But there remains a clear skew created by these polls by certain issues. The first is old polls. Let me give you a few examples. Let's start with the general election average:

Do you perchance see the issue with this CNN poll I've highlighted? It's nearly two weeks old, and dates to before the game-changing Presidential Debate on 10/4.The Politico poll isn't quite as old but all data was gathered ahead of the first Presidential Debate. So here we have two old polls, both with Obama winning (albeit marginally) that keep Mitt Romney's lead smaller. Take those two polls out of the average, you see Mitt Romney not with a 0.8% lead, but a 2.25% lead in the average of the four polls since the debate.

Here's an average from the swing state of Pennsylvania:

So let's compare. We've got two polls from 2-3 weeks ago showing Obama with an average lead of 9.5%. Then we have two polls from the last week with an average lead of 2.5% for Obama. Huge swing of 7%. Yet, due to RCP's average, they have Pennsylvania as "leaning Obama." In the last week, the two polls we have show Obama's lead as within the margin of error. It's a tossup, friends. Governor Romney can win Pennsylvania.

One more old before we go into skewed:

Here's another highly important swing-state. It's considered "Leaning Obama" based on the RCP average. However, except for last week's PPP Poll, the other four polls are 2-4 weeks old. Clearly, according to the Democrat Public Policy Polling, Obama's lead is down to 2% (within the poll's margin of error).

Now let's talk about what we've been discussing for months on Biblical Conservatism: Skewed polls.

Quick reminder: Ohio's voter identification is +1 Republican. We Ask America's sample was +4% Democrat (5% skew to Democrats). ARG oversampled Democrats by 9% (10% skew to Democrats). CNN/Opinion Research oversampled +2% (3% total skew to Democrats). Survey USA oversampled Democrats by 4% (5% total skew to Democrats).

These are simply snapshots, friends. But the point I am making is important. The RCP Average is packed often with outdated polls and skewed polls, treated as though they were up to date or as accurate as the other polls. It creates a false impression of the reality of the situation. While Real Clear Politics is a good site, please don't get me wrong, but the average is simply not an accurate reflection of the electorate.

To my regular readers: With the Vice Presidential Debate tonight, I will be writing my reaction to that event tomorrow and publishing tomorrow's blog by about 1 pm.