RCP Avg Strikes Again with Misleading Polls - This Time in Ohio

According to the Real Clear Politics Average in Ohio, the President is leading Governor Romney by 1.7% in the so-called "poll of polls." As I've said before, I am willing to at least give RCP the benefit of the doubt, but still, this average includes four polls that either by accident or design use highly Democrat skewed polls:

RCP is using four polls with skewed samples:

Survey USA, uses a +7% Democrat sample to get Obama to +3%. If we unskew that data to a +3% Democrat Sample, using Survey USA's own internal data of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents are polling, we find Romney with a slight lead of 44.7% to Obama's 44.0%

CBS/Quinnipiac, uses a +9% Democrat Sample to get Obama to +5%. If we unskew that to a +3% Democrat sample, and using CBS/Quinnipiac's own data, we find Obama's lead has cut to one tenth of the poll's prediction to 0.5%: Obama 45.8% to Romney 45.3%

Gravis Marketing used a sample of +9% Democrat, and that showed a tie. If we unskew it to a +3% Democrat sample and use Gravis' own internal data,

The PPP and Fox News polls could not be accurately unskewed because they did not publish their internal data did not provide the necessary breakdowns of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents intended to vote.

So apparently Obama is in fact losing Ohio, very slightly. This makes a difference. Lets look at the RCP "No Tossup" Map, shall we? This is the map using the skewed Ohio sample:

Now let's look at the map using our new data that unskews the samples to +3% Democrat instead of +7-9% Democrat:

One other issue for the President is he's at an average of 46.3%. Well below 50%. Historically you see undecided voters this late (12 days before the election) swing hard to the challenger. I'll even be generous and call it 2:1 for Romney. When that happens it's 51.7% Romney, 48.3% Obama.

Bottom line, exactly what I've been telling you is true: the RCP average, when a Drive-By Media source throws a wrench into the mix and skews the average, it spoils the entire sample. Here in reality, Romney is winning. And that's all that matters.

If the Obama Campaign Isn't Worried, They Should Be

Sorry so late today, Biblical Conservatives! Had a personal issue that kept me on the shelf all morning, but here's today's dose of Biblical Conservatism!

Despite what a few Drive-By Media skewed polls are now showing, Obama had better start worrying.

Let's start with a few reasons:

- Florida is now clearly moving to Romney's territory. A Rasmussen Poll released on Friday shows Romney leading Obama by 5% and over 50%.

- North Carolina is now being considered by Real Clear Politics as no longer a tossup but in the Romney column.

- Virginia is becoming more and more clearly in the Romney camp. It's been two full weeks since a poll showed Obama leading in Virginia.

- The Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" now puts all three of these three states in the Romney camp.

- The Real Clear Politics Electoral Map shows Romney leading Obama (map does not include any tossup states).

- Except for one anomalous poll (same poll in both), Iowa and Wisconsin are within the margin of error.

- A new poll now has Romney winning Pennsylvania by 4%.


- So many voters remain undecided at this stage in the game, and historically, undecideds break hard for the challenger.

- One final note. Two weeks ago, the Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" looked like this:

Today it looks like this:

No amount of tiny poll fluctuations will change the fact that the President should be worried. VERY worried, because Mitt Romney is on the precipice of victory in 15 days.



Since tonight is the final Presidential debate, tomorrow's article will go up about 1 pm EST. Thanks for reading!

Liberals Panic After Pew Poll

In case you missed it, the liberal Pew Research Center published a poll showing Governor Mitt Romney taking a 4% lead over President Barack Obama. Combine that with ties in Rasmussen and Gallup's tracking polls on Monday, Obama's lead dropping to 1% in the Politico Battleground Poll, you've got a full on panic from the Left.

Do you remember when the Drive-By Media and liberal pundits were ridiculing those of us who questioned such polls as...oh, I don't know...Pew Research Center's September poll sample which had a +10% Democrat sample. Then, when the same Pew Research Center publishes a poll with a +5% Republican sample. Now, given the climate in this country, what's more likely, do you think? A +10% Democrat turnout or a +5% Republican turnout? (2004, for example, saw a +4% Republican turnout, and Republican engagement is at least as strong this election as 2004.)

(Dramatized Liberal) POLLS ARE COOKED!  (All of a sudden!) HOW DARE THEY! No, don't remember how we trumpeted Pew's accuracy. That's not important! It's like Rasmussen now! (No, don't pay attention that Rasmussen and Pew were tied for most accurate polls in 2008.) It's not fair! Wah wah wah!

Friends, you who read Biblical Conservatism every day know I've been telling you for months upon months that Romney was going to win and these polls with oversampled Democrats were just hiding reality. Now, after Governor Romney went and hit a home run in the first debate, Pew can't hide the reality. So now, we're seeing the real electorate being predicted. And Obama's lead has disappeared. Now Romney is winning.

And now, the Left is in a pure panic. They don't know what to do with themselves! They're talking about Big Bird. That's what they're reduced to, friends. That and saying Governor Romney lied in the debate. That's what they are reduced to doing.

We are about to win, gang. Get ready for it. WE'RE GONNA WIN!

Swing States Swing to Romney Post Debate

Mitt Romney's debate performance last week was one of the finest debate performances I've seen since I started watching debates twenty years ago. Many predicted he would perform well in the debates, but many also said that debates rarely change elections. Welcome to rarely.

Over the weekend, a lot of things started swinging to Mitt. In Gallup, for example, Governor Romney went from losing by 5% before the debate to tied with the President. This is huge, especially since Gallup polls Registered Voters not Likely Voters. In Rasmussen, Governor Romney went from 2% down on Friday to 2% ahead on Saturday.

But what about the swing states? What happened post debate there?  Let's look at recent polls (regardless of organization) before and after the debate. (We'll use statewide party registration data as our baseline where appropriate.)


Colorado (Party Registration +2% Republican):

- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by +3%.

- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Romney winning by 3%. (Using an accurate +2% Republican sample)

Florida (Party Registration +5% Democrat):

- Before the debate, Suffolk had Obama leading by 3% (Sample Democrat +6%) and Gravis had Obama +1%.

- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 3% and Rasmussen had Romney winning by 2%.

Nevada (Party Registration +5% Democrat)

- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by 11%.

- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Obama's lead down to 1%.


Now I recognize we're using lots of polls here, but that's because we need to as these organizations are not being consistent in their polling during the campaign. However, one thing is clear. After the debate, Mitt Romney is making a huge comeback. Game on.

Ohio (Party Registration +1% Republican)

- Before the debate, Public Policy Polling had Obama leading by 4% (using a +5% Democrat sample) and NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +8% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 8%.

- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 1% and Rasmussen had Obama leading by only 1%.

Virginia (Party Registration +3% Republican)

- Before the debate NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +2% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 2%.

- After the Debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by +3% and Rasmussen had Romney leading by +1%.

Wisconsin (Party Registration +4% Democrat):

- Before the debate, the Marquette University claimed Obama had a lead of 11% over governor Romney. (Sample +7% Democrat).

- After the debate, Democrat Public Policy Polling

The Drive-By Media Keeps Doubling Down on Skewed Polls

We've talked about this so many times here at Biblical Conservatism: the Drive-By Media is cooking polls to show Obama winning (and keep the Real Clear Politics average showing Obama leading).

Here's a few examples:

The Pew Research Center had to oversample Democrats by 9% to get Obama to +8%.

The University of Connecticut had to oversample Democrats by 8% to get Obama to +3%.

Monmouth University had to oversample Democrats by 4% to get Obama to +3%.

The National Journal had to oversample Democrats by 6% to get Obama to +7%. They also undersampled Independents (who are consistently leaning comfortably to Romney) by 5%.

Every bit of this is based on using an even polling sample. Even that is generous to Democrats, by the way. Rasmussen's poll of voter identification (which is run monthly and talks to hundreds of thousands of voters) shows voter ID at Republican 37%, Democrat 33% and Independent at 29%.

When unskewing the data using Rasmussen's Voter ID data, Examiner.com found Romney leading 49%-46% in the Pew Poll, Romney leading 51% to 45% in the University of Connecticut Poll, Romney leading 50% to 45% in the Monmouth University Poll,
and Romney leading 48% to 46% in the National Journal Poll.

Gallup and Rasmussen, our two already unskewed polls have the race ostensibly tied, for the record. Whether or not the unskewed polls show that the Drive-By Media is hiding the problem or if their polls are purely cooked to help Obama I do not know. At any rate, if you believe the Drive-By Media polls, you are officially nuts. We are going to win in November, friends. Let not your heart be troubled. Game on!

Why are Polls Still Using 2008 as their Turnout Measure?

Liberal polls are continuing to use their bad polling samples to claim Obama is winning. It's officially ridiculous. They are continuing to use samples that show a Democrat turnout advantage that, by the way, didn't exist in 2010 and shouldn't be expected in 2012.

We've got Democracy Corps that used a polling sample of 41% Democrat, 30% Republican and 28% Independent (Democrat advantage +11%) to achieve an Obama lead of +5%.

Then we've got a Reuters poll that used a sample of Democrat 47%, Republican 38%, Independent 15% - the sample included Independent leaners. (Democrat advantage +9%) to arrive at an Obama lead of +3%

Earlier this week we had a Washington Post-ABC Poll which used a sample of Democrat 32%, Republican 26% and Independent 37% (Democrat advantage +6%) to achieve an Obama lead of +1%

Even a Fox News poll has Obama up +5%. I know liberals are out there saying "HA! EVEN FOX NEWS says Obama is winning!" Except one problem: In Fox News' latest poll is oversampling Democrats by +6% (which baffles me) in THEIR poll, using a sample of  Democrats 42%, Republicans 36%, Independents 19%.

Rasmussen remains the only grownup in the room with their polling sample. They are predicting a turnout in 2012 of +1 in favor of Republicans (a conservative estimate). Now, and here's the shocking fact (sarcasm) this reflects the 2010 election turnout within 1%! (Source)

Gallup was using a similar polling sample to Rasmussen, and was showing Obama and Romney neck and neck. That was, until the Obama Administration began to pressure Gallup behind the scenes to change their sample to make it more favorable to Obama. 

Fox, to be honest, I think is spending too much time trying to get the liberal media and liberals in general to stop making fun of their "lack of balance." (Which is the most hilarious example of the pot calling the kettle black I've ever seen!) which leads them to use samples that the Left would approve of this time around.

Now friends, I think the polls that will really matter will be within 1-2 weeks of the election. Because that's when the Media is going to have to worry about their reliability ratings and they'll stop using bad samples. Remember that in 1980 only a few weeks before the Election of 1980 Gallup had Carter beating Reagan (Reagan won in a landslide).

Friends, the only polling sample that is making a reasonable guess at the real election turnout for 2012 of +1 for the GOP is Rasmussen (the same poll that was rated most reliable in 2012).  And that poll has Romney beating Obama by 3%.

Fact of the matter is the Drive-By Media isn't using polls to show public opinion. They are trying to shape it. We must not let them. We are headed for victory in November, both in Congress and the Presidency. Game on.

Obama is losing, so the Drive-By Media Cooks Some Polls

It's happening, friends. The Drive-By Media is releasing cooked poll after cooked poll to show President Obama as stronger than he really is in head to head polls against Mitt Romney.  We talked about it in late April when the offender was NBC.  This time we have two offenders: Reuters/Ipsos and Tipp Online. Both have Obama beating Romney. Both have skewed poll samples to favor Obama.

Important to note is what these two polls do to the Real Clear Politics average.  (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, what Real Clear Politics (henceforce referred to as RCP) does is take all polls in a given election and give a straight average, whether the poll is of adults, registered voters, or likely voters.) What these two polls have done is given the President a slim lead in the RCP average of 46.2% to Romney's 46%. (So close it's a statistical tie.) However, this includes our two doctored polls. More on this later.

Before we go into the two polls, let's once again set the baseline in this country for conservatives, moderates, and liberals. As I've said so many times before, this is far more accurate than naming party affiliation, because so many people in the South especially are still registered as Democrats but vote conservative...holdovers from a past where a conservative Democrat was a real thing. However, it is reasonable to presume that conservatives will vote Republican and liberals will vote Democrat, leading the moderates as the group who may or may not vote down their party line or be a swing voter.

So, in 2011, Gallup did, as in past years, conduct a series of polls to establish the ideological demographics of this nation. In January 2012 Gallup published their National Ideology Poll.  At that time, 40% of Americans self-identified as conservative, 35% self-identified as moderate and 21% self-identified as liberal.  So a legitimate assumption would be to presume 40% of Americans to lean Republican and only 21% to lean Democrat. Even if we assume 20% of those moderates are true swing voters (as conventional wisdom proclaims) and split the remaining 15% with the two parties as moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, that means 47.5% Republican leaners and 28.5% Democrat leaners. (Translation, they need ALL the true swing voters to win.)

The first offending poll is Tipp Online.  Tipp shows the President beating Mitt Romney 46% to 43% amongst registered voters (not likely voters, registered voters).  Even Tipp admits that "Race Tightens, Obama Lead Over Romney Narrows To 3 Points" in their headline.  But there's a problem with their polling sample. They gave Democrats a 7% advantage! You have to look at the very bottom of this poll to find it, but when Tipp asked the individuals polled which way lean politically, 38% self-identified as Democrat, 31% self-identified as Republican, and 27% self-identified as independent. 

That's a 7% advantage simply handed to the Democrats...one that does not exist in reality!  The only way to justify this poll is to claim, erouneously, that 65% of all moderates lean Democrat while only 35% lean Republican.

The second offending poll is Reuters/Ipsos. The poll shows Obama with a mildly comfortable lead of 49% to 42% over Mitt Romney (not likely voters, registered voters). There's just one problem...they went and handed a 9% advantage to Democrats in this poll! Whooops!  Their polling sample was 47% Democrat leaners to 38% Republican leaners! Holy cow! Once again, this does not match up with the real electorate and their political ideologies!

The only way to justify this poll is to eroneously claim that 74% of self-identified moderates lean Democrat. Nice try, but no dice. This does not add up to any reality.

So back to that RCP average that we talked about. Let's take the other polls involved, including two 3-day rolling average polls in Gallup and Rasmussen; as well as two polls of likely voters rather than registered voters in Rasmussen and Democracy Corps (ironically, these guys are a Democrat polling organization yet they're being more honest).

Rasmussen has Romney defeating Obama 49% to 44%, a 5% margin of victory (2% above the margin of error). Gallup has Romney defeating Obama 47% to 44%, a 3% margin of error (exactly the margin of error).  Democracy Corps has a tie of 47% to 47% for both candidates.

These three polls have an average of Romey 47.75% to Obama 45.5%.  This means Romney averaging a +2.25% margin of victory.  Compare this to the RCP average including the cooked Tipp and Reuters polls, which shows Obama beating Romney 46.2% to 46%.  So by publishing cooked polls, these two organizations push the RCP average from Obama losing to Obama winning.

Friends, the Drive-By Media likes to do this to dishearten conservatives, to make us give up on winning the White House. They want to make you believe that Obama will be re-elected so you won't work hard to defeat him. But what polls like this show is that they are very worried. They are trying to convince you (and themseleves) that Obama is a stronger candidate than reality shows. We must not let him. We will defeat Obama in 2012!

Obama's Poll Numbers Have Been Bad for Months

A lot of sources have recently been talking about President Obama's recent low approval numbers, especially the 39% approval he was given by Gallup in the last week. (1)  However, what hasn't been report as widely is the fact that the President's approval ratings have been rather lousy for some time now.

As usual, our sources will be the two most trustworthy polling organizations; Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll of likely voters (2) and Gallup's Daily poll of American adults.  As usual, please remember that polls of likely voters are usually a better judge of how well a President will do in his re-election campaign than adults.

First, let's look at Gallup, whose poll of adults gave Obama approval as low as 39% (2) this week:

- The last time President Obama's approval was at/above 50% was 6/9/11


- The last time President Obama's approval was at/above 50% for consecutive days was
6/1/11 - 6/2/11


- The last time President Obama's approval was at/above 50% for a full week was 5/6/11-5/10/11

Now, let's look at Rasmussen, whose poll of likely voters gave Obama approval as low as 43% (3) this week:

- The last time President Obama's approval was at/above 50% was 6/9/11


- The last time President Obama's approval was at/above 50% for consecutive days was
5/28/11 - 5/29/11


- The last time President Obama's approval was at/above 50% for a full week was 5/6/11 - 5/10/11

That's just the last time President Obama hit 50% or higher.  For the record, the highest he hit in those days was 52%.  His poll ratings for this entire year, save for a relative handful of days, has been 49% or lower. 

The Drive-By Media wants us to think that Obama's mediocre to low approval numbers are new, but they aren't.  They've been mediocre to bad for over a year.  Obama has been Jimmy Carter levels of unpopular pretty much since his honeymoon period ended in 2009.  This is not new.  The American people have disapproved of Obama's policies for quite some time now.  The only change is the Drive-By Media has started to pay attention.

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(1) Obama's Approval Hits New Low

(2) Rasmussen: Obama Approval Index History

(3) Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval