Monday, May 7, 2012

Conservatives Need Not be Pessimistic in 2012

I've noticed a very disturbing trend amongst conservatives in this election: pessimism.  There simply is no logical explanation for it.

Obama's approval is in the toilet still (in polls of registered voters or likely voters his approval is below his disapproval). In head to heads with Romney, while Obama is in some instances winning (generally not in polls of registered/likely voters) he remains below 50%, a mark which is not a good sign for an incumbent.

Furthermore, as we showed recently, these Obama poll wins require significant oversampling of Democrat leaning voters (a reality that is 99.999% unlikley to occur in reality) and many young voters are not planning on showing up to vote for Obama.

Another sign that I find very interesting is the fact that Drive-By Media outlets have largely failed to release new polls in a couple weeks. When you eliminate polls that are 2 plus weeks old, you see a head to head tie between the two with Romney taking a slight edge (and that's before Mitt's really started to campaign, friends.)

There is no real reason for any of us to be pessimistic about losing this election. This is not 1996, friends. Obama is not popular. He is not seen as a success. He cannot say "give me four more years and I will give you more of the same" and receive votes. His ratings on specific issues are significantly below his ratings on the whole which suggests people like the President far more as a person than they approve of his job. 

Friends, Obama is not a strong candidate. Stop being pessimistic. The attitude should not be "let's make sure we at least keep the House and win the Senate."  Rather, it should be "let's make sure we also keep the House and win the Senate," because the White House is likely going to be ours. We are going to make Obama a one-term President. Game on.

1 comment:

  1. I think the big reason for the pessimism is that Obama remains well liked as a person and we are used to meaning something, even though it doesn't mean something when there is real issues people care about, like gas prices, un and underemployment, and a lumbering overreaching health care legislation.


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