Friday, November 2, 2012

Good News, Mr. President: In Fantasy Land, You're Still Winning!

Of course, here in the real world, Mitt Romney's winning.

Scratching your head? Apparently you haven't read this blog.  We've got some new polls that have come out, and they claim Obama's winning. Only one problem: They are using 2008 Election Turnout. Nobody who is honest and worth their salt is claiming that the 2008 Electoral Turnout will happen.

So let's show you what's happening in Fantasy land, shall we?

  • A National Journal Poll on Halloween, the report gave President Obama a +5% advantage nationally. Only one problem, straight from their article:

"In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time."

Allow me to respond in writing how I responded vocally when I read this:


Election turnout will mirror 2008? Are you kidding me, National Journal? According to Gallup last week, Election 2012 turnout is going to look not like 2008, but like 2004 and 2010: +2% Republican. Rasmussen's most recent Party ID Poll shows a +3% Republican advantage.

So based on these two
samples, predicting a +8% Democrat turnout is pure, unadulterated sophistry. It's a fantasy. Actually, it is, on average, a +10.5% Democrat oversample. If only someone had predicted this before he had seen that sample happening, say on the Biblical Conservatism Facebook Page:

Oh, I guess I did predict that.

A couple other fun state polls (our example comes from the New York Times, but they are hardly alone in this game) with similar baloney being sold:

In Florida, the New York Times says Obama is leading Romney by 1%. Using a +9% Democrat Sample. Over the last four elections, the average turnout in Florida was +1% Republican. That's a 10% Democrat oversample! Unskew that to the historical average turnout, you see Romney winning by 7%!

In Ohio, the New York Times has Obama leading Romney by 5%. Except they used a +8% Democrat sample. Over the past four elections the real turnout was +2% Democrat. They oversampled Democrats by 6%! Unskewed that puts Romney at +1%.

In Virginia, the Times says Obama is leading by 2%. Except they used a +8% Democrat sample. Over the past four elections the real turnout was an average of +1% Republican. Unskew that poll and Romney leads by 7%.

There are examples of this in other states like Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, the list goes on and on. The bottom line is the only place Obama is winning is in Fantasy Land. Here in the real world he's losing.

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