Monday, August 20, 2012

Numbers to Back Poll Cooking Accusations

It's a common topic here at Biblical Conservatism: Showing where Drive-By Media organizations have used polling samples that are skewed to favor Democrats in an effort not to name public opinion but to shape it, specifically by making discouraging conservative and Republican voters.

For as long as I've made this posts, I've been told I was wrong, that Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration, and that therefore these polls do in fact reflect the electorate. Well, it turns out there is data to point out how ridiculous the claim of Democrat superiority is in reality.

It is true that, in terms of party REGISTRATION, the Democrats maintain a slight lead of 4%. According to Gallup's poll, 31% of Americans consider themselves Democrat while 27% consider themselves Republican. A whopping 40% consider themselves independents.  HOWEVER, when you add in Independent leaners, it becomes a dead tie: 45% Democrat, 45% Republican.

In addition, this takes into account the fact that a) many states have open primaries so party registration does not matter at all or allow Independents to vote in their choice of primary each time and b) states like Kentucky (19% Democrat registration advantage) Arkansas (10% Democrat registration advantage) and Louisiana (26% Democrat registration advantage) are not only Red States but they are DARK Red States. Each of the three have not gone Democrat in sixteen years (the last time these were blue states was 1996).

You may find yourself asking yourself "Self, I wonder if there is corroborating evidence for this poll?" Well, it turns out there is indeed corroborating evidence!

According to Rasmussen Reports most recent poll asking individuals not "with what party are you registered?" but rather "with what party do you most closely identify?" the party indentification breakdown is basically tied. So once again, precisely as I have told you, it is ridiculous to claim that "Democrats have an inherent advantage." It's simply not true. Their 4% advantage in party registration is made up by the fact that more Independents lean Republican than Democrat (which explains how adding Independent leaners evens out the party lines). The most plausible explanation to this phenomenon is states where registered Independents can vote in primaries (at which point, as I said above, I would consider it a good decision to register as an Independent).

So friends, the next time you see a poll that gives a polling sample that is not even split of Republicans and Democrats, or perhaps +4 in Democrats if you're being generous, you might want to throw away that poll's results. You can rest assured your intelligence is going to be insulted by the outcome of the poll.


 Primary Source:

1 comment:

  1. How does this affect shape public opinion?


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