The news is a week old, I'm afraid, but there's been so much else going on I've been backed up on important stories to cover. However, it was the Democrat group Democracy Corps (run by former Clinton adviser James Carville) who broke the story that in their poll, the President is losing to Mitt Romney with Independents by 15%. That's huge, especially considering that Obama won Independents by 8% in 2008. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that's a 23% swing in favor of the GOP from 2012).
The overall poll claimed that the President was leading Governor Romney by 2%...but that does include a +6% Democrat oversample. Translation: In the real world with an appropriately even sample or even a couple point GOP advantage which can be legitimately be guessed given the difference in voter engagement, it is reasonable to presume that Romney is actually beating Obama by about 3-4% (which is what the only poll of likely voters that doesn't include a fantasy electorate with a Democrat turnout advantage is showing).
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