Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Even Democrat Pollsters Admit Media is Cooking Polls

I've spent the last couple months pointing out how ridiculous a prediction it is to say that the 2012 Election turnout will be +6% for Democrats (or +8% or +10% or whatever) not to mention the undersampling of Independents (who by the way are continuing to favor Mitt Romney).

I've continued to listen to people tell me that group think and collusion by the Drive-By Media is akin to scientific evidence that this is what the election will turnout as (since the same media outlets keep finding the same sample in "random" samples).

However, two Democrat pollsters gave interviews to corroborate what I've been saying for quite some time: These samples are NOT reflective of what the likely voter turnout will be in 2012.  First, Douglas Schoen, Democrat pollster who worked on such campaigns as Bill Clinton Michael Bloomberg. When  asked if the polling samples accurately reflect the probable electorate:

"The simple answer is no...the bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That's from the exit polls and that's about as accurate as you can get...President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it's about one point off the margin."

Later, Schoen said:

“Saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”

The second pollster was Democrat Insider Patrick Caddell, who worked for the campaigns of George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Gary Hart, and past Senate campaigns for now Vice President Joe Biden.. He said of the recent polling samples:

"What you have is an act of utter irresponsibility, in my opinion."

Later in the interview, Caddell said,

"They shouldn't be running these...(they) are having an effect on this election that is really bad."And further, Caddell said,

"The key issue in this business is's the real issue, the explicit message in all of this is, you got to tell the truth, I don't believe that anyone doing a poll today, for whoever, could credibly release numbers that are plus 11 for the Democratic Party."

Friends, I would argue that showing a skew period for Democrats is irresponsible. 2010 exit polls showed a dead heat. Rasmussen and Gallup's regular tracking polls of voter identification show either a Republican advantage or an even split. When two Democrat pollsters are admitting it, I think that says an awful lot.

As Caddell said, they are having an effect on this election with these polls. It remains my contention that that is precisely their goal. They do not want to reflect the electorate. They want to effect it.

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