Barack Obama's leads are evaporating with key demographics, at least if you believe the polls. (I for one believe that the polls are now beginning to reflect reality after months of cooked polls.) According to a USA Today/Gallup Poll published earlier this week, Mitt Romney leads the President 50 to 46% in the Swing States. (Nationally, Gallup's 7-Day Tracking Poll has Romney leading the President by 7%).
But there are some further key demographic details where Romney is really setting himself up for victory.
- Romney maintains his solid lead with male voters in the Swing States, ahead of the President 52% to 44% (that's a 8% lead for those of you from Palm Beach County, FL).
- Romney is now within 1 point of the President with female voters, trailing the President by merely 49% to 48%.
- Romney is leading Obama 46% to 36% with Independents according to the other most recent swing state poll, POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll (since the USA Today/Gallup poll did not give this particular breakdown). Just to give you a rough idea, the President would need to win 83% of the undecided Independents to win Independents (and that by 1%). That's simply not going to happen. (Remember, historically undecided voters this late break hard for the challenger).
Remember when women were Obama's victory firewall? Yeah, about that. The President is ostensibly tied with Governor Romney. He's also losing men by 8% and Independents by 10%. This is bad, bad news for the President.
I will go on record right now: If the President only wins women by 1%, loses men by 8% and loses Independents by 10%, do you know what we'll be calling Mitt Romney come November 7th? Mr. President-Elect.