Mitt Romney's debate performance last week was one of the finest debate performances I've seen since I started watching debates twenty years ago. Many predicted he would perform well in the debates, but many also said that debates rarely change elections. Welcome to rarely.
Over the weekend, a lot of things started swinging to Mitt. In Gallup, for example, Governor Romney went from losing by 5% before the debate to tied with the President. This is huge, especially since Gallup polls Registered Voters not Likely Voters. In Rasmussen, Governor Romney went from 2% down on Friday to 2% ahead on Saturday.
But what about the swing states? What happened post debate there? Let's look at recent polls (regardless of organization) before and after the debate. (We'll use statewide party registration data as our baseline where appropriate.)
Colorado (Party Registration +2% Republican):
- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by +3%.
- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Romney winning by 3%. (Using an accurate +2% Republican sample)
Florida (Party Registration +5% Democrat):
- Before the debate, Suffolk had Obama leading by 3% (Sample Democrat +6%) and Gravis had Obama +1%.
- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 3% and Rasmussen had Romney winning by 2%.
Nevada (Party Registration +5% Democrat)
- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by 11%.
- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Obama's lead down to 1%.
Now I recognize we're using lots of polls here, but that's because we need to as these organizations are not being consistent in their polling during the campaign. However, one thing is clear. After the debate, Mitt Romney is making a huge comeback. Game on.
Ohio (Party Registration +1% Republican)
- Before the debate, Public Policy Polling had Obama leading by 4% (using a +5% Democrat sample) and NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +8% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 8%.
- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 1% and Rasmussen had Obama leading by only 1%.
Virginia (Party Registration +3% Republican)
- Before the debate NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +2% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 2%.
- After the Debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by +3% and Rasmussen had Romney leading by +1%.
Wisconsin (Party Registration +4% Democrat):
- Before the debate, the Marquette University claimed Obama had a lead of 11% over governor Romney. (Sample +7% Democrat).
- After the debate, Democrat Public Policy Polling