Gallup: Obama in Trouble with Independents

Political elites on both sides of the aisle will tell you that a candidate in a national election needs to reach those "independents," the great unwashed middle who "makes their decisions on each issue at each election" to win.  The conventional wisdom is, of course, that 40% of Americans will automatically vote Democrat at 40% will automatically vote Republican, so the election tips on that 20%. 

I've never bought this, or the so-called moderate/independent self definition of wisdom beyond compare to decide their positions issue by issue, in the least. Most of these people somehow find a way to land with one leg on either side of the fence on every single issue then call themselves wise beyond compare.  The truth is they are a) not willing to take time to consider issues b) want to be perceived as smart and c) are persuaded not by substance but by style.  But I digress.

Gallup, recently, brought out some more very bad news for President Obama, in a new poll breakdown released on November 29th. According to the poll, of the 14% who self identify as "pure independents" (that is, neither lean Democrat or Republican), only 30% approve of the job President Obama is doing.  This is compared to 43% that the President is receiving across all party lines.   Once we add in those who lean slightly to the Democrat or Republican side, the President's approval rises only to 35%.  Again, that's not good for Obama (but great for America).

I've been saying this for quite some time, my friends, Obama is in trouble. He's going to be defeated in 2012.  I can hear you who buy into the whole moderate/independent baloney now telling me that we must nominate Mitt Romney or...gaaaaa...Jon Huntsman...to get those independents.  Look, it does not matter. These proud independents/moderates are convinced not by ideas but by personalities.  That's the reason they voted for Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama.  They will be convinced by a conservative with great ideas just as easily as they bought into Hopey Change.

The President is headed for a big defeat in the 2012 Election.  So let's make sure he loses to a real conservative.  This is our time, friends.  Let's go!

New Gallup Poll - Obama's in DEEP Trouble in 2012

Since the beginning of this blog in December of 2010, I've been telling you that President Obama is in trouble, electorally speaking, in 2012.  Early this week, Gallup just backed it up.  According to six months of Gallup's rolling daily approval polls, the President is over 50% approval in only sixteen states. (1)  (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that means if the election was held today, the President would likely lose 34 states.

(2)

By the numbers according to gallup, 18 states have very low approval for Obama, so much so that you can reasonably expect that Obama will lose those states hands down.  There are, by the math, 156 electoral votes are firmly going to the GOP.  The 16 states where Obama does have approval ratings would provide 173 electoral votes for Obama.  That means there are 209 votes up for grabs.  Guess what...those 209 belong to states where the President has below 50% approval.  (For those of you from Palm Beach County, that means if the election was held today, Obama would lose those states and their electoral votes.)

(1)

Remember, the electoral college, with the exception of two states (ME and NE), gives each states electoral votes in their entirety to the winner of that state's popular votes. Four states, (ME, MI, WI, and WA) are at exactly 50% approval for the President. That means 42 electoral votes are pretty much up for grabs.

The breakdown, however, if the election was held today, and if these approval ratings bear out, the final would be:

Republican Candidate: 323 electoral votes

President Obama:  173 electoral votes

Undecided: 42 electoral votes

Remember, 270 votes are needed to win.  Even if Obama sweeps the four states that are at 50%, he still loses in a landslide.  

Friends, the President is in DEEP electoral trouble in 2012.  A Generic Republican has been beating Obama for several weeks now.  Now, looking at this Gallup poll, we see what Obama's fate would be in the electoral college...it's not good for Obama, but great for America.

So, as the guy who's been telling you how imminently beatable Obama is for months, I'd like thank Gallup for proving it.  To the Republican Party, now is not the time for a gray area RINO moderate nominee.  Bring on the real Conservatives, because 2012 is looking more and more like our year!

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(1) Obama Job Approval 50% or Higher in 16 States and D.C.

(2) Map Courtesy of the Washington Examiner