Friday, August 12, 2011

New Gallup Poll - Obama's in DEEP Trouble in 2012

Since the beginning of this blog in December of 2010, I've been telling you that President Obama is in trouble, electorally speaking, in 2012.  Early this week, Gallup just backed it up.  According to six months of Gallup's rolling daily approval polls, the President is over 50% approval in only sixteen states. (1)  (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that means if the election was held today, the President would likely lose 34 states.


By the numbers according to gallup, 18 states have very low approval for Obama, so much so that you can reasonably expect that Obama will lose those states hands down.  There are, by the math, 156 electoral votes are firmly going to the GOP.  The 16 states where Obama does have approval ratings would provide 173 electoral votes for Obama.  That means there are 209 votes up for grabs.  Guess what...those 209 belong to states where the President has below 50% approval.  (For those of you from Palm Beach County, that means if the election was held today, Obama would lose those states and their electoral votes.)


Remember, the electoral college, with the exception of two states (ME and NE), gives each states electoral votes in their entirety to the winner of that state's popular votes. Four states, (ME, MI, WI, and WA) are at exactly 50% approval for the President. That means 42 electoral votes are pretty much up for grabs.

The breakdown, however, if the election was held today, and if these approval ratings bear out, the final would be:

Republican Candidate: 323 electoral votes
President Obama:  173 electoral votes
Undecided: 42 electoral votes

Remember, 270 votes are needed to win.  Even if Obama sweeps the four states that are at 50%, he still loses in a landslide.  

Friends, the President is in DEEP electoral trouble in 2012.  A Generic Republican has been beating Obama for several weeks now.  Now, looking at this Gallup poll, we see what Obama's fate would be in the electoral's not good for Obama, but great for America.

So, as the guy who's been telling you how imminently beatable Obama is for months, I'd like thank Gallup for proving it.  To the Republican Party, now is not the time for a gray area RINO moderate nominee.  Bring on the real Conservatives, because 2012 is looking more and more like our year!

(1) Obama Job Approval 50% or Higher in 16 States and D.C.

(2) Map Courtesy of the Washington Examiner

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