To my regular readers: In an effort to provide quality analysis on the Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri contests from February 7th, I decided to wait to post my reactions until tomorrow, allowing solid numbers to be in place. Thank you as always for reading Biblical Conservatism!
Time again for some good, hard numbers, and my friends, for those of us who want to see Obama as a one term President, the numbers are encouraging. While the Drive-By Media is muddled in national polls or head to head matchups (which don't really matter until the candidate is chosen),
Real Clear Politics has their current electoral map with ten states currently solidly in Obama's camp (worth 175 Electoral Votes) and another five leaning Obama; and twenty states currently solidly in the Republican camp (worth 159 Electoral Votes). There are a couple erroneous predictions in my estimation, however, in the "Lean Obama" camp that I believe are worth noting as well as a couple in the "Tossup" category that I believe lean Republican.
RCP is claiming that Oregonn (7 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5 electoral votes) lean Obama. Based on Gallup's 2011 Job Approval - State by State, however, the President's approval rating is 44% and 46% in those two states, respectively. Hard to say states with disapproval that is higher than approval will lean to Obama, don't you think? So I'm considering their electoral votes as leaning Republican. It's also hard to say that Michigan (16) and Maine (4) can legitimately be called "leaning Obama" when his approval rating is 50% there (a genuine tossup). Finally, RCP calls Ohio (18) and Florida (29) as tossups, but in both those states again Obama's approval is several points lower than his disapproval, so I think we can call those lean Republican as well, as can Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15) who also have Obama's approval ratings well under water.
So let's give an honest comparison, shall we?
Dist. of Columbia (3)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Colorado (9) *
Nevada (6) *
New Hampshire (4) *
North Carolina (15) *
Ohio (18) *
Virginia (13) *
North Dakota (3)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
West Virginia (5)
* These States have been moved to the lean Republican column due to Obama's approval ratings being 46% or less with disapproval rates above his approval number.
So, with these more honest numbers, the Republican nominee is looking at 256 Electoral Votes, Obama is looking at 185 Electoral Votes, and only 81 are tossups. A few important details: Even if the President gets a clean sweep of the five true tossup states, he's still four electoral votes shy of winning. Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is only 14 votes shy of winning. So if the GOP nominee can win any two of the five tossup states, they will win.
At any rate, we're looking at a one-term Obama Presidency. Thank you, God.