Reactions to the AZ and MI Primaries

Yesterday, Arizona and Michigan held their Republican Primaries.  One was hotly contested, the other was not.  Before we analyze the two states, lets note for the record that neither Newt Gingrich nor Ron Paul put any real effort into these two states.  Both states were essentially contests between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (although all four were on the ballot).  So, given this lack of effort by Newt and Ron Paul,

Let’s take them one at a time, shall we?

Arizona

Arizona was ultimately a layup for Mittens.  Polls closed at 9 pm Eastern, the state was called at 9:01 pm.  It’s a nice win for Mitt, since Arizona’s delegates are winner-take-all.  So Mitt picked up 29 more delegates toward the nomination.  Not a whole lot more to say.  Mitt did nicely for himself in Arizona. It was the kind of win Mitt needed to regain his air of inevitability.

Michigan

And then Michigan happened to Mittens.  It couldn’t be called for quite some time. Mitt won a squeaker at the end of the day, but even that win is very hard to call it a win.  Winning by 3% is a pathetic turnout considering that Mitt was born and raised in Michigan and that George Romney, Mitt’s father, was the incredibly popular 3-term governor of Michigan.  The Romney name is as golden in Michigan as the name Kennedy is in Massachusetts, yet Mitt could only ride that to a small victory.  If I was Mittens, I’d be nervous.

Rick Santorum on the other hand ought to be very pleased with his showing.  To come so close to beating Mitt in his home state and to pick up close to half of the 30 delegates at stake is huge.  Furthermore, if the conservative vote was to be consolidated (this time theoretically behind Santorum), the Senator would’ve beaten Mitt.   A very strong showing for Rick Santorum.

Two more primaries, two wins for Mitt.  Arizona was a nice win.  Michigan, however, was disappointing.  If I was Mitt Romney, I’d feel nervous.  If I was Rick Santorum, I’d feel confident.  Even though the Senator lost both contests, again, coming so close to beating Mittens in Michigan is a great victory for him. 

Next week is going to be very telling.  Next Tuesday is Super Tuesday.  Mittens is lost his inevitability.  Rick Santorum is rising as the conservative choice. Next week is the last chance for Newt Gingrich to make a comeback.  If he doesn’t, it’s time to conservatives to coalesce behind Rick Santorum. 

Either way, Mittens is not doing well.  He wanted to have this race wrapped up by now.  Instead, he’s in a dogfight.  This nation is pushing further to the right, conservatism is taking over the GOP, returning it to its.   The Tea Party, no matter how much we’re called fringe, is actually the mainstream of America.  Those of us who have been conservatives for years are joining forces with those who just came to the conservative table and we are taking this country back.  At the end of the day, I believe whomever we nominate is going to beat Barack Obama.  So let’s get the best we can get.  Game on.