Be Prepared for Legal Challenges In Close States

Especially the ones where the swing state polls are using preposterous samples that won't happen on Tuesday.

Quick history lesson: Who remembers 2000? I do. Al Gore held up a decision from the 2000 Election for a full month. While it was required by law for Florida to do a machine recount of votes when the margin for victory for Bush was only 2000 votes. Gore then demanded hand recounts of votes, not only focusing ONLY on three of the most heavily Democratic counties in Florida but also demanding that votes be counted for him where votes that were not clearly cast, as defined by law, for a particular candidate.

Liberals spent years using such methods as exit polls and polls done after the election asking people who they had intended to vote to say that the actual votes were wrong. That's the world of the Left, gang...the actual votes don't matter. Just the polls matter.

How about 2004? In that election, the Exit Polls showed John Kerry winning the Presidency. It wasn't close, in some polls. Then the votes started to be counted. It wasn't close. Bush won. He won by a comfortable enough 3% margin.

The stories came out again: There must have been fraud! The polls said Kerry was going to win! Even John Kerry pondered a challenge like Gore four years before...but ultimately thought better of it. That didn't stop the Left from claiming it was illegitimate. It's not the votes that matter...the polls are the TRUTH...according to the Left.

So now we have these poll that are continuing to use 2008 Turnout as their models...if not far greater Democrat turnout that 2008. I made this point Friday on Biblical Conservatism:

When the turnout in, for example, Ohio, ISN'T +9% Democrat but lets say it's +2% Democrat and Romney wins by 1-2%...don't you think the New York Times might just say "How can this be?! Our polls showed Obama winning by 5%!"

My friends, I want you to be ready. I believe we are going to win. And as history has shown, these attempts to claim fraud doesn't stick. What the ultimate result will be if this happens, however, will be a claim that future President-Elect Romney would be told he has no grounds for a mandate and therefore he has no right to institute his policies. That's what they said about George W. Bush.

Bottom line: BE READY. I believe we are going to win on Tuesday. If it's not a sweep victory for Romney (which it could indeed be...see polls before the Election of 1980), there will be these claims from some if not all circles in the Drive-By Media.

Swing States Swing to Romney Post Debate

Mitt Romney's debate performance last week was one of the finest debate performances I've seen since I started watching debates twenty years ago. Many predicted he would perform well in the debates, but many also said that debates rarely change elections. Welcome to rarely.

Over the weekend, a lot of things started swinging to Mitt. In Gallup, for example, Governor Romney went from losing by 5% before the debate to tied with the President. This is huge, especially since Gallup polls Registered Voters not Likely Voters. In Rasmussen, Governor Romney went from 2% down on Friday to 2% ahead on Saturday.

But what about the swing states? What happened post debate there?  Let's look at recent polls (regardless of organization) before and after the debate. (We'll use statewide party registration data as our baseline where appropriate.)


Colorado (Party Registration +2% Republican):

- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by +3%.

- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Romney winning by 3%. (Using an accurate +2% Republican sample)

Florida (Party Registration +5% Democrat):

- Before the debate, Suffolk had Obama leading by 3% (Sample Democrat +6%) and Gravis had Obama +1%.

- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 3% and Rasmussen had Romney winning by 2%.

Nevada (Party Registration +5% Democrat)

- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by 11%.

- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Obama's lead down to 1%.


Now I recognize we're using lots of polls here, but that's because we need to as these organizations are not being consistent in their polling during the campaign. However, one thing is clear. After the debate, Mitt Romney is making a huge comeback. Game on.

Ohio (Party Registration +1% Republican)

- Before the debate, Public Policy Polling had Obama leading by 4% (using a +5% Democrat sample) and NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +8% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 8%.

- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 1% and Rasmussen had Obama leading by only 1%.

Virginia (Party Registration +3% Republican)

- Before the debate NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +2% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 2%.

- After the Debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by +3% and Rasmussen had Romney leading by +1%.

Wisconsin (Party Registration +4% Democrat):

- Before the debate, the Marquette University claimed Obama had a lead of 11% over governor Romney. (Sample +7% Democrat).

- After the debate, Democrat Public Policy Polling

Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 2)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's continue to look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?


Wisconsin - RCP Avg: Obama + 6.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+6%

Wisconsin Voter Registration: +4% Democrat

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +7% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

- For NBC to get Obama to +5% they had to oversample Democrats by +5%

- For CBS to get Obama to +6%, they had to oversample Democrats by +8%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Virginia - RCP Avg Obama +3.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample +3% Democrat

Virginia Voter Registration: +3% Republican- For NBC to get Obama to +2%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For Suffolk to get Obama to +2% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)


In Wisconsin, to get Obama to a +6.7% average lead they had to oversample Democrats by an average of 6%. Again, assuming 90% of undersampled Republicans reweighted will give you a much smaller Obama lead of 1.1%, well within the margin of error.

In Virginia, when you take that 3.7% lead and the 3% oversample of Democrats to get to even (or 6% oversample of Democrats against

Drive-By Media Admits Romney is Winning Independents

It's a detail that has been ignored in the cooked polls that the Drive-By Media keeps posting: Romney is winning Independents in the Swing States. Remember how the "conventional wisdom" is that Independents are the kingmakers, right?

Well, according to some polling in both Florida and Ohio, Romney is winning Independents in each state. Today, we're going to do a little exercise. It's not meant to be scientific, mind you. Just a little illustration.  First, the data:

Ohio – Romney Leads Among Independents:

Ohio Newspaper Organization – Romney +28
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +1
American Research Group – Romney +16
Fox News – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +3
Public Policy Polling – Romney +2                 
Average: Romney +9%

Florida - Romney Leads Among Independents:

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +3
Gravis Marketing – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +2
American Research Group – Romney +1
Florida Times Union – Romney +4             
Average: Romney +2.8%

So now, let's do a quick exercise. Using the last three Presidential elections as our baseline we'll arrive at a baseline for the election, then arrive at a prediction including Independents.

Florida Turnout: 2008 - Democrat +3 - 2004 - Republican +4% - 2000 - Democrat +2% = D +1 average

Furthermore, Florida has 23% Registered Independents. So we're going to use as our hypothetical turnout model for Florida 39% Democrat, 38% Republican and 23% Independent.

Using that turnout model, and figuring in an average of Romney winning independents of 2.8% over Obama; assuming that Romney wins 90% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats; also assuming Obama wins 90% of Democrats at 10% of Republicans, the result would be Romney winning 52.4% and Obama winning 47.6% of the total vote. That means Romney would win Florida's 29 Electoral Votes.

Ohio Turnout: 2008 - Democrat +8% - 2004 Republican +5% - 2000 Democrat +1% = Democrat +4% 

Using that turnout model, and figuring in an average of Romney winning independents of 2.8% over Obama; assuming that Romney wins 90% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats; also assuming Obama wins 90% of Democrats at 10% of Republicans, the result would be Romney winning 50.3% and Obama winning 48.7%% of the total vote. That means Romney would win Ohio's 18 Electoral Votes.

Source: Media Ignore Independents' Swing Toward Romney