Let the Liberal Poll Cooking Begin!

It's election season, and the more trustworthy polling organizations are beginning to show a tough year for Democrats. So what is the official Drive-By Media response? Cooked polls!  Today we've found a fine example of this precise practice in the form of an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll that was published this past Friday. 

The outcome of this poll tries to say that President Obama has a fair lead over Mitt Romney if the election was held today, with Obama leading Governor Romney 49% to 43%.  This stands in stark contrast to the historically far more reliable Gallup tracking poll (that takes data daily and offers a 3 day rolling average) which shows Governor Romney leading the President 48% to 43%. 

So how in heaven's name does NBC come up with this data?  The devil is, as always, in the details. For starters, this poll's sample includes 9% more Democrats than Republicans (43% Democrat or Democrat leaning and 34% Republican or Republican leaning). Considering the question asked was not "what party if any are you registered with" but rather "which party do you most identify with" this is a clear skew that helps Obama look better. (It resulted in a +5% skew for Obama and a -6% skew against Romney...changing the predicted result.)

It is reasonable to assume that there are about the same number of Republican and Democrat leaning individuals in America as a base with maybe 10-15% true middle ground believers. Actually, as I've highlighted before, there are consistently more conservatives than moderates and consistently more moderates than liberals when it comes to a person's self-identity.

At the end of last year, 40% of Americans considered themselves conservative, 35% considered themselves moderate and 21% considered themselves liberal, according to last fall's Gallup Survey. Given a reasonable assumption that the vast majority of conservatives are Republicans and the vast majority of liberals are Democrats and splitting the moderates right down the middle, you get 48.5% Republican leaners, 38.5% Democrat leaners. So to take a poll that is 43% Democrat is highly dishonest.

There is, of course, corroborating evidence against this poll. For example, the poll asked about the preferred Congressional election outcome for each voter. The result was 46% preferring a Democrat Congress and 44% preferring a Republican Congress. This stands in stark contrast to Rasmussen's Generic Congressional Ballot poll which showed that 46% of likely voters prefer a generic Republican against 36% who preferred a generic Democrat. So this poll's skew resulted in a +12% net gain for the Democrats and a -2% net loss for the Republican. (Even in a cooked liberal poll, Republicans are close to beating Democrats!)

My friends, this is only the beginning. The Drive-By Media is not concerned with reporting the truth. They are concerned with skewing results to make Obama look better and to dishearted conservatives and Republicans so that we don't fight hard to defeat Democrats. We will not let them.

Fact is this election year is looking very bad for liberals and Democrats. Game on.

Letter Bag: A Time for Realism

It's that time again, friends, to open up the Biblical Conservatism Letter Bag (Yay! Letter bag!)  Today we have a drive-by post from someone who apparently created a Blogger account just to comment!

To set the stage, the post in question was last week's Santorum's Out, Now What?.  One of the very type of people I called out in that post (in this case, a DelusiNewt) left this comment:

YOU ARE AS DELUSIONAL AS YOU CLAIM OTHERS (DelusiNewts) TO BE. Yet,...ONLY the time will help me to help you understand what I mean by that...

I'm sure you're thinking what I was thinking: There must be another comment, some kind of point...some kind of well worded argument...something. Two days later, nothing.  Of course, you need a name before I write your response, so I'm going to call you Balrog.

Dear Balrog:

Yes...I'm the one who is delusional. The definition of delusional is a person who DOESN'T believe that Newt can somehow win 90% of the remaining primary delegates to miraculously defeat Romney.  Delusional also apparently means not believing the irrational, viceral trouncing of Romney as just as liberal as Obama.  I especially really appreciated your thorough and well thought out arguments to prove your point.

In opposite land.

Look, Balrog, I know we've all been kicked a few times by the GOP when it comes to "establishment candidates."  I too lived through Bob Dole and John McCain. Here's the thing, Balrog: I actually look at each candidate and don't presume they're absolutely McCain or Dole because the Establishment backs them.

The reality which our friend Balrog ignores is that the Tea Party already has begun to push the Republican Party to the right. The simple fact that Mittens was the Establishment Candidate this time proves it.

Balrog may have forgotten, but I haven't: in 2008 Romney was the Conservative Alternative candidate.  Because he was significantly more conservative than John McCain. In 2012, we had people that were even more conservative than Mitt, but that doesn't change the fact that THIS establishment candidate is farther to the right that at least three of the last four (if not all four) "establishment candidates."

So no, Balrog, I'm not being delusional. I would've preferred Newt too. I endorsed him, remember? But I also recognize that Priority One is defeating Obama. If that means settling for less conservative (but not socialist) then so be it. That's being realistic.  Still dogmatically insisting Newt can win is the delusional position.

Say hi to E. Honda for me!

-Chris

Santorum's Out, Now What?

Tuesday, Senator Rick Santorum "suspended his Presidential campaign." (Real world translation: Ended campaign in all but name so he can raise money still to pay off debt.) Two questions come from his news.  One, why did Santorum withdrawal? Two, more importantly, now what?

Let's try to conject about the reasons for Senator Santorum's withdrawal first, shall we?  There are two likely reasons for this drop out, and I do not see any other real potentials. One, and this is most likely, the Santorum Campaign has run out of money. This is pretty much the only reason why candidates drop out of races. It likely explains why Newt Gingrich has outlasted Santorum...he's still got cash in the coffers.   The second potential is the one that I hope is NOT the case: little Bella Santorum's health is worse than publicly known.  If this is the case, I shan't dwell on it save to say I hope that's not the issue.

Either way, the Senator's Presidential campaign is over. Conservative reactions can be broken into three camps: The Bridge Jumpers, the DelusiNewts, and the Live Withs.

For the record, I'm a Live With.  I can live with Mitt Romney as our nominee, as I've said so many times. I can live with Mittens with more ease than I put up with John McCain four years ago, because Romney is certainly more conservative than John McCain. McCain is a genuine fence sitter RINO.  Romney is definitely about 15 degrees right of center. (I would say that Santorum is about 50 degrees right of center, Newt is about 65 degrees right of center, and Ron Paul is about 85 degrees above the clouds in Happy Imagination Land.)

The Bridge Jumpers are the polar opposite of the Live Withs. They believe that Santorum was Reagan Part II, that Romney is Gerald Ford Part II, who believe deep down in the depths of their hearts that a Romney nomination will equal an Obama re-election. (As if Obama was somehow a strong candidate if we run only a modestly conservative candiate?)  These people are lining up at the Brooklyn Bridge to jump off it.  (They're intermingling with my fellow Mets fans, by the way).

Then there are the DelusiNewts. These are the people who have spent the past few months calling for Santorum to get out of the race to pave the way for Newt. (Ignoring the silliness of saying "Hey guy in close second place, get out of the distant third place guy's way!)  The DelusiNewts are now throwing a party, believing that Santorum's exit will pave the way for Gingrich's big second coming to ultimately win the 90% of the remaining votes to beat Mittens. (I think you have a better chance of seeing my aforementioned New York Mets shocking the world and winning the World Series.)

I know, some of you are waiting for an answer to the "now what?" question.  Here it is, friends: Be rational, and join us me as a Live With.

I'll be taking time in the coming days to explain in greater detail why I can live with Mitt, and why, above all else, we must defeat Barack Obama. The thing that would be the biggest travesty to hit America in 2012 would not be a Romney Administration.  It would be a second Obama Administration.  Maybe Romney would just be a stop gap, but you know what? I'll take a stop gap! (Especially knowing that Mitt will absolutely have to choose a Vice President like Paul Ryan or...genuine shivers of excitement...Marco Rubio; because that VP will likely be the next Republican nominee after Romney.)

Either way, friends, I am confident that, in the likely event we nominate Romney, we will be looking at President Romney. And I can live with that.

Reactions to MD, WI and DC Primaries

Tuesday Mittens became a little more inevitable.  I hate to say it, because I've been quite the optimist on this, but when he soundly wins two of the three contests, it's hard to say otherwise.

Winning DC was a layup for Mittens, who took 70% of the vote.  Which says an awful lot, because all of the three dozen Republicans there (that are residents and not members of Congress) are about as conservative as Republicans in Massachusetts.

Maryland has a lot of DC residents, pundits, etc, so again, makes sense for Mittens to win there.  Despite it's position at the immediate south of the Mason-Dixon line, Maryland hasn't been a Southern State for a while. It's kind of like Florida in that regard. I expected Mitt to win, and he did.

Wisconsin is a completely different matter. Wisconsin has been a conservative battleground for two years now after Scott Walker was elected governor and has pushed for common sense reforms to close a budget gap.  Yet Mittens won Wisconsin.

But wait...what about the presence of Newt Gingrich splitting the vote!  Senator Santorum would've won AT LEAST one of those states with Newt's voters, right?  Nope.  The closest was Wisconsin, where Mittens beat the Santorum/Gingrich aggregate by 44% to 43%.  In Maryland, Romney beat the Santorum/Gingrich aggregate by a score of 49% to 40%.  In Washington DC it wasn't even close, where the conservative tangent only netted 6% of the vote (since Senator Santorum wasn't on the ballot).

Now I KNOW I'm going to get a whole lot of grief for this from fellow conservatives who are high on passion and low on logic here, but friends, the chances of us getting someone other than Romney just sank to about 10% (and that 10% is named Brokered Convention).   I know the same aforementioned people have a similar proclivity to Happy Imagination Hats as some Activist Liberals do. So I'm here to be your voice of reason AGAIN.

One, as imperfect and not Reagan as Mitt Romney is, he is, most definitely, better than Obama. (The same could be said of George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Foghorn Leghorn, and a Radish.)  Let's not be so ridiculous as to believe that we can't win with a more moderate candidate.  The Democrats are running Obama!  Despite the Drive-By Media's recent desire to present Obama as somehow a stronger candidate, he's been a huge, embarrassing failure as President!

Friends, if Mitt Romney is our nominee, be prepared for President Romney. Which will also not be as intolerable as some of you seem to believe.  While he's not the conservative powerhouse that someone like Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich (or future fantasy candidates like Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Bobby Jindall) he's also a whole lot more conservative than John McCain was, or Bob Dole, and honestly even George W. Bush. So for crying out loud, please breathe.

If Mitt's our nominee, I can live with it. I'll continue to hope for better and vote for someone else when my chance comes, mind you, but I can indeed live with Romney.

Reactions to the Illinois Primary

Tuesday, the state of Illinois held their 2012 Republican primary.  As expected, Mitt Romney was the big winner, taking 46% of the vote, with Rick Santorum coming in second with 35%, Ron Paul in third with 9% and Newt Gingrich in last with 8%.

First off, I'd like to note that Mittens winning Illinois is not a surprise.  It's a deep blue state. It's also the home of the city (Chicago) that the corrupt politics that the Democrat party is famous for going back to the Cermak-Daley political machine, rivaling only Tammany Hall in New York City (also Democrat).

What does this win mean for the field? Well, Romney would like this to be a sign of his inevitability. It may well be. Right now it looks like Santorum needs to win something like 70% of the vote going forward to win enough delegates to defeat Romney. Yet Mittens has his own problem. Even with this win, he's still not near the magic number of 1,144 delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot and avoid a brokered convention.

This time, Rick Santorum would've still lost if Newt had dropped out and conservatives had coalesced, but Mittens' win would've been a good bit smaller (3% instead of 11%). Also, as we've chronicled numerous times, the delegate race would look much different without Newt. 

Newt's performance was disappointing, especially from a man who wants to show he's still a legitimate contender.  Losing to Ron Paul is not a good way to show you can still come back. I said on Friday that it's time for Newt to bow out, and Illinois further backed that sentiment in my mind.

With every contest of three candidates, we head closer to the aforementioned brokered convention.  For those of you who are a fan of it, start dancing. For those of you who join me in the Real World, well, you know why a brokered convention can be a problem.

It's Time for Newt to Bow Out

Before Super Tuesday, I said it would likely be Newt's last hurrah.  I then submitted that IF and ONLY IF he could win BOTH Mississippi and Alabama would he have a legitimate argument to be the conservative alternative.  He'd then have four top notch Southern states to his name.  But that did not happen. He came in second place in both states, beating Mittens by 1% or less in both. He also came in third in Kansas.

There comes a time when one needs to be pragmatic.  Do I still believe that Newt is the best candidate to face Obama? Absolutely.  Do I still believe Newt's platform is the most conservative?  Yes I do. But what I no longer believe is that he can win this thing.  More importantly, the longer Newt stays in, the more likely we are to see Romney as our nominee.  He's not even coming in second place. 

When he was in second place, there was a strong argument to say Santorum should drop out and allow the conservative vote to coalesce behind Newt.  I'm no hypocrite...the door swings both ways. Newt is stopping Santorum from beating Romney in many places, and stopping Santorum from squashing Romney in others.

Just to give you some comparison of states, giving the combination percentages of the two conservatives vs. Mittens:

KS - Conservatives 65%, Mittens 20%; AL Conservatives 69%, Mittens 29%; MS - Conservatives 63%, Mittens 30%; GA - Conservatives 66%, Mittens 25%; ND - Conservatives 47%, Mittens 23%; OH* - Conservatives 51%, Mittens 29%; AK* Conservatives 43%, Mittens 32% 

There's far more, but again, Mittens is in trouble when the conservatives consolidate.  Furthermore, it's clear that Santorum has the edge over Gingrich.  Also, Newt is hurting Santorum in the delegate count.

If Gingrich tells his delegates to vote for Santorum, again, this is a big game change.  Currently, Mittens leads Santorum 495 delegates to 252 delegates.  That's a about 50% lead by Romney.  Now if Gingrich's delegates go to Santorum, now Mittens' lead drops to 495 to 383, only a 33% advantage. In raw numbers, Santorum is only a little more than one hundred votes shy of Mitt.

Most of us want better than Romney.  Most of us Newt fans also agree that Santorum would be a pretty decent second choice. It's time to do the math, friends.  You can have a candidate who is 100% perfect for you (Newt) but doesn't have a snowball's chance in July of winning the nomination, a candidate who is 85% perfect for you but can beat Mittens (Santorum) or you can have a candidate who is 50% perfect for you by default.  The choice is yours, my friends.

As for me, as the editor of Biblical Conservatism, I am hereby withdrawing my endorsement of Newt Gingrich.  I am not going to publicly endorse anyone else at this time, because I believe it is far more important to focus on why we must defeat Obama, and so I will focus on the Somebody Else 2012 campaign.

*Denotes State Romney won in a 3 way race

Reactions to KS, HI, MS and AL Primaries

Over the last seven days we've seen four states contests occur. Three were won by Rick Santorum. Only deep blue Hawaii went to Mitt Romney. So let's look at it state by state:

Kansas (Caucuses)

Senator Santorum won 51% of the vote. Mittens came in second 20% and Newt had only 14% (a very disappointing finish) and Ron Paul with 12%.  Kansas was just the beginning of of some huge victories for Santorum.  Important to note is that 65% of the vote in Kansas went to the conservative candidates.

Hawaii (Caucus)

Mittens won his only contest of the week with 45% of the vote.  Senator Santorum won 25%, Ron Paul won 18% for a 3rd place finish, and Newt had an again disappointing 11%.  Hawaii was a large margin for Mitt, but ultimately is not helpful for 2012.  Not only is Hawaii as deep blue as California and New York, but it's also Obama's native state.  It also has only 20 delegates that are proportionally distributed.

Alabama (Primary)

Senator Santorum won the state with 34% of the vote.  It was a nice win.  Senator Santorum has clearly made himself the conservative alternative in this race, drawing the Tea Party vote nicely while, despite the Left's best efforts, continuing to win women. Newt came in second with 29% of the vote followed by Mittens who also had 29% of the vote (Newt actually received .3% more of the vote, by the way) and Ron Paul received 5% of the vote.  It was another big win for Santorum, who again solidifies himself as the conservative who can indeed mathematically beat Romney. Important to note is that 69% of the vote went to the two conservatives.

Mississippi (Primary)

Senator Santorum won 32% of the vote in Mississippi, with Gingrich winning 31% and Romney 30%.  Ron Paul was a distant third with only 4%.  Again, Santorum is showing his strength as the conservative choice.  Also again important to note is that 63% of the vote went to the conservative candidate.

So what does it all mean? It means, quite frankly, it's time for Newt to get out of Santorum's way. We as conservatives all want better than Mittens. At this point, we're not going to get that with two conservatives splitting the vote. If the two consolidated their support, believe me, Mittens would be in a lot of trouble. 

Tomorrow, I'll get into that more. But for now, I leave you with this: Santorum has solidified himself, and he can beat Mittens. Or we can demand Newt, and settle for Romney.  Either way, this last week was a big winner for Santorum.

Why All Four GOP Candiates (and a Radish) Would Make a Better President than Obama

Over the seven days, we've analyzed how all four Republican candidates (and a radish) would make a better President than Barack Obama.  Today, here's a recap of why all five would be better than Obama:

Why Ron Paul Would be Better than Obama:

- Cut $1 Trillion from the budget in year one.

- Eliminate five cabinet level Executive Branch departments.

- Cut Federal Workforce by 10%.

- Return Spending to 2006 Levels (putting the deficit at less than 10% of today's deficit).

- Lower corporate taxes.

- Repeal the 16th Amendment (Which allows Federal income tax).

- Return the bulk of governmental power to the States where it belongs.

Why Rick Santorum Would Be Better Than Obama:- Repeal Obamacare.

- Reform our immigration system to make it harder to enter illegally and easier to enter legally.

- Stand up for the rights of every human being, born and unborn, to be alive.

- Repeal ALL major Obama Era new regulations that squash business growth.

- Cut $5 Trillion in spending over 5 years.

- Reduce Federal Non-Defense Spending to 2008 Levels.

- Reform Medicare and Social Security to make it a sustainable program for generations to come.

Why Mitt Romney Would Be A Better than Obama:

- Cut income tax rates across the board by 20%.

- Cap Federal Spending at 20% of GDP.

- Return all Non-Defense Spending to pre-2008 levels.

- Repeal Obamacare.

- Repeal Dodd-Frank and replace with streamlined, modern regulatory framework.

- Amend Sarbanes-Oxley to relieve mid-size companies from onerous requirements.

- Open America’s energy reserves for development.

Why Newt Gingrich Would Be Better than Obama:

- Repeal Obamacare.

- Institute an optional 15% Flat Tax for all Americans

- Unleash American Energy Production (all of it, not just "Green Energy)

- Pass a Federal Balanced Budget Amendment

- Reform Social Security to make it a sustainable program for generations to come.

- Control our border by January 1, 2014

- Enforce the 10th Amendment by affecting a transfer of power back to the states and the people.

Why A Radish Would Be Better than Obama:

- This radish would not veto a Congressional repeal of Obamacare.

- This radish would not veto a Congressional repeal of Dodd-Frank.

- This radish would not veto a Congressional bill to cut taxes.

- This radish would not veto a Congressional repeal of Obama Era regulations.

- This radish would not veto a Congressional bill to open our domestic oil fields.

- This radish is without question, naturally born in America. I've seen the garden it's from and it's in America.

- This radish will not take a vacation every couple months on the taxpayer's dime.

Are any of these candidates perfect? No way!  One of them is an emotionless vegetable for Heaven's sake...and another one is a radish!  But every one of them would be a better President than the one we have now!

Reactions to Super Tuesday

Tuesday, ten states held their Republican contests. 

The final scorecard was:

 Romney 7 states (198 Delegates) - Santorum 3 states (84 Delegates) - Gingrich 1 state (68 Delegates) - Paul 0 States (21 Delegates)

That puts the delegate count at:

Romney 404 - Santorum 161 - Gingrich 105 - Paul 61

So what does it all mean?  Looking at things candidate by candidate:

Mittens won Ohio, Virginia, Massachusetts, Idaho, Alaska and Vermont. Of those states, only the Ohio win counts as a big one.  Neither Santorum nor Gingrich were on the Virginia ballot, he would've won (in this primary) Massachusetts and Vermont with his eyes closed, and Idaho isn't going to be a swing state and neither will Alaska. Ohio was an absolute squeaker...Mittens won by less than 1% of the vote. 

Here's where Mitt should be worried: He still hasn't carried a genuine southern state. (Yes, I know, he won Florida, but Florida is basically South New York.  There are so many transplanted New Yorkers there it's hard to call it Southern).  This is where Mitt could still lose. 

Rick Santorum won Tennessee, North Dakota, and Oklahoma.  I think it's fair to say, however, that Santorum lost because Newt's still in the race. If (as expected) conservatives weren't split between Newt and Santorum, the Senator could have added Alaska and Ohio to his win column, strongly changing this Super Tuesday's results.  More on that later.

Newt Gingrich carried his home state of Georgia and made a fair showing for himself in Tennessee.  Had Santorum not been in the race, one could expect Newt to have carried Tennessee and Oklahoma. But, one cannot fairly say it's Santorum who should get out given the current polls.  Newt didn't quite have his swan song on Tuesday, but he needs to win Mississippi, Alabama, and possibly Kansas in the next week to stay in this race. Otherwise, he's just guaranteeing us Romney.

I've endorsed Newt, and I still believe he's the best candidate for the job, but sometimes one needs to be strategic.  I'm going to hold back from saying Newt should drop out.  But if he doesn't win at least Mississsippi and Alabama this coming Tuesday, I'm going to have to say that and likely withdraw my endorsement of him for that reason.  Conservatives want better than Romney. That's a fact. The reality is we cannot continue to pretend Newt's got another huge comeback in him at this late stage in the game.  He needs two Hail Mary touchdowns in Mississippi and Alabama, or else the game is over.

Finally, there's Ron Paul.  Congressman Paul didn't win any states, but did pick up a few delegates.  To date, hes' got about 8% of the total delegates so far.  His quest is to push some of his fiscal ideas into the platform. Honestly, he needs more than 8% of the delegates to do it. We'll see what happens, but I do expect Congressman Paul on the ballot for the rest of the campaign either way. 

Super Tuesday is past.  It's time for conservatives to face a harsh truth: We either unite behind one candidate or accept Mittens. I'm on record saying I can live with Mittens. Doesn't mean he's preferable. I prefer dogs over cats.  I have a cat because I live in an apartment and can't have a dog and I want a real pet, darn it. If I could've gotten a dog back in '05 when I adopted my cat, I would've gotten a dog. Right now, we can still have a dog...or we can settle for a cat.  He might even end up being a great cat...one that acts a lot like a dog (like my cat does, by the way). The time to make that decision is now.  We can live with our ideals and be stuck with Mitt, or we can coalesce.  The time is now to decide.  I'm eager to hear your thoughts. 

Before (Actually During) Super Tuesday

Today is Super Tuesday.  A lot is going to be decided.  It seems that every major candidate (except for Ron Paul) is picked to win a couple of states.  Romney is leading the most, but Santorum is nipping at his heels.  Newt needs a splash. Ron Paul is, well, Ron Paul.

Mittens really wants a few big victories.  He wants to get his air of inveitability back.  He wants to push his "accept me" routine so he can start focusing on Obama.  It's not going to happen after today's results, but Mittens can surely try. What Mitt needs to do is court conservatives.  He needs to stop running from his supposed conservatism.  Embrace it. Stop believing the Drive-By Media...conservatism does not scare away Independents.  Liberalism does, which is why Liberals have to campaign as centrists.  But conservatism WINS. It's like Novocaine, always works, just give it time.  Every time.

Rick Santorum also wants to make a splash, this time against Mittens' inevitability claims. He needs to focus moving forward on his conservatism. Including his fiscal conservatism.  The moral issues are good and important, but so is the economy.  That's why Mittens is doing so well.  He's an economy guy.  If Senator Santorum gets on that train, he'll do well too.

Then there's my guy.  Newt Gingrich is at a now or never point.  He needs to win a few states, not just Georgia.  We'll see what happens...but if he can't pick up probably at least 3 states, it may be time to drop out and let the conservative vote coalesce behind Santorum  We'll see what happens tonight.

Of course, that leaves Ron Paul.  Ron Paul is trying to gain delegates.  He likely will, especially in the Idaho and North Dakota Caucuses. He's pushing to have his views on the GOP Platform.  Go for it, Congressman Paul, provided it's your economic policies I'm in favor of them!

We're going to know a lot tomorrow morning.  We may see the field winnowed.  We may not.  It's going to be interesting.  On a final note, please know that my official reactions to Super Tuesday will come on Thursday, so there's time to give a good analysis of all the fallout. 

As always, thanks for reading Biblical Conservatism, and, with Super Tuesday in full force, game on.

Why Newt Gingrich Would Make a Better President than Obama

Recently, Biblical Conservatism has been presenting our Somebody Else in 2012 Campaign.  The goal is, above all else, to defeat Barack Obama in 2012.  So, in the coming days, we're going to discuss why each of the remaining four candidates, even if they may be less than your ideal candidate.  Today we're going to talk about Newt Gingrich. Here are some of his platforms:

- Repeal Obamacare.

- Institute an optional 15% Flat Tax for all Americans

- Unleash American Energy Production (all of it, not just "Green Energy)

- Pass a Federal Balanced Budget Amendment

- Reform Social Security to make it a sustainable program for generations to come.

- Control our border by January 1, 2014

- Enforce the 10th Amendment by affecting a transfer of power back to the states and the people.

Is Newt Gingrich a perfect candidate?  No.  But he is one of two candidates who I believe will absolutely govern according to conservative principles if elected. He governed as a conservative in his four years as Speaker of the House and for his 22 years in the House of Representatives.  He will make America strong again and he will make government less relevent in our lives.  Most importantly, Newt will make a better President than the one we have now.

Reactions to the AZ and MI Primaries

Yesterday, Arizona and Michigan held their Republican Primaries.  One was hotly contested, the other was not.  Before we analyze the two states, lets note for the record that neither Newt Gingrich nor Ron Paul put any real effort into these two states.  Both states were essentially contests between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (although all four were on the ballot).  So, given this lack of effort by Newt and Ron Paul,

Let’s take them one at a time, shall we?

Arizona

Arizona was ultimately a layup for Mittens.  Polls closed at 9 pm Eastern, the state was called at 9:01 pm.  It’s a nice win for Mitt, since Arizona’s delegates are winner-take-all.  So Mitt picked up 29 more delegates toward the nomination.  Not a whole lot more to say.  Mitt did nicely for himself in Arizona. It was the kind of win Mitt needed to regain his air of inevitability.

Michigan

And then Michigan happened to Mittens.  It couldn’t be called for quite some time. Mitt won a squeaker at the end of the day, but even that win is very hard to call it a win.  Winning by 3% is a pathetic turnout considering that Mitt was born and raised in Michigan and that George Romney, Mitt’s father, was the incredibly popular 3-term governor of Michigan.  The Romney name is as golden in Michigan as the name Kennedy is in Massachusetts, yet Mitt could only ride that to a small victory.  If I was Mittens, I’d be nervous.

Rick Santorum on the other hand ought to be very pleased with his showing.  To come so close to beating Mitt in his home state and to pick up close to half of the 30 delegates at stake is huge.  Furthermore, if the conservative vote was to be consolidated (this time theoretically behind Santorum), the Senator would’ve beaten Mitt.   A very strong showing for Rick Santorum.

Two more primaries, two wins for Mitt.  Arizona was a nice win.  Michigan, however, was disappointing.  If I was Mitt Romney, I’d feel nervous.  If I was Rick Santorum, I’d feel confident.  Even though the Senator lost both contests, again, coming so close to beating Mittens in Michigan is a great victory for him. 

Next week is going to be very telling.  Next Tuesday is Super Tuesday.  Mittens is lost his inevitability.  Rick Santorum is rising as the conservative choice. Next week is the last chance for Newt Gingrich to make a comeback.  If he doesn’t, it’s time to conservatives to coalesce behind Rick Santorum. 

Either way, Mittens is not doing well.  He wanted to have this race wrapped up by now.  Instead, he’s in a dogfight.  This nation is pushing further to the right, conservatism is taking over the GOP, returning it to its.   The Tea Party, no matter how much we’re called fringe, is actually the mainstream of America.  Those of us who have been conservatives for years are joining forces with those who just came to the conservative table and we are taking this country back.  At the end of the day, I believe whomever we nominate is going to beat Barack Obama.  So let’s get the best we can get.  Game on.

Reactions to the CNN-AZ Debate

Last night, the four remaining Republican candidates met for their first debate in a long time in Arizona.  It’s been so long that you’re not going to remember the notes from the last debate.  As a matter of fact, I’m going to refrain from putting in my notes from the last debate, since it was nearly a month to go. 

However, since we last saw the candidates debate, much has happened, so let’s quickly review that:  After winning South Carolina, Newt Gingrich has essentially tanked.  He needed a really great debate last night.  Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has surged.  Senator Santorum has surged for the precise same reason that Gingrich had previously rocketed up: he’s effectively communicating conservatism.  Real conservatism wins.  Period.  Ron Paul has…well…kept being Ron Paul.  Finally there’s Mitt.  Mittens has stayed where he’s been…an acceptable but not preferable choice.  A lot of conservatives are still screaming that Mitt’s a liberal or a moderate…the later is sort of true, although what a “moderate” is has moved right since the GOP nominated John McCain. 

So let’s play a round of everyone’s favorite debate game, Buy, Hold, Sell or Sell All:

Newt Gingrich Hold (Buy): Newt had the opportunity to do two the best things that he does.  One, he got to slam dunk CNN for continuing to bring up the baloney about birth control.  Two, he got the chance to be the above the fray wise sage in the debate. His best moment was talking about how the same media that is harrumphing about birth control ignored the fact that Obama voted against a law to say that an unborn child who survived abortion procedures, including partial birth abortion procedures.  Once again, it’s another media double standard.  However, I don’t think Newt got the type of screen time he needed to rebound.  I hope I’m wrong.  I think Super Tuesday is going to be Newt's last stand if he doesn't win a few states.  We shall see.

Ron Paul Sold (Sold):  Ron Paul was Ron Paul.  He did make a good point on the contraceptive issue.  He’s right, the problem in and of itself isn’t birth control birth control is a reasonable medical tool) but the way people use it to live a consequence free life.  (I’m paraphrasing.)  It’s a good point.  That’s why I don’t have a problem with true contraception (while saying again and again that abortion isn’t contraception, it’s a simple difference between).  I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, I agree with Ron Paul on about 85% of issues.  Tonight Paul highlighted that 85%.

Mitt Romney Buy (Buy):  First and foremost, I want to say that it definitely sounded like Mittens had stacked the room.  It was almost comical how the audience cheered at Romney getting his tail kicked for making terrible points.  It was so out of line and cheering bad points.  Often it was two people cheering at completely inopportune times.  Not only do I think the Romney camp stacked the audience, they absolutely sucked at it.

Now to Mitt.  He got his butt kicked early on.  It was like watching Socrates debating a vacuum cleaner.  (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, Socrates was, at least in the writings of Plato, one of the finest debaters in the history of ever.) 

Rick Santorum Buy (Buy):  Santorum went back and forth between debating well and debating like a vacuum cleaner.  He spent a lot of time giving Romney the same look that Newt was previously known for (you know that look…the one that says “What are you, stupid?”  Then Senator Santorum found his swing and started hitting the ball hard.  He also absolutely hit it out of the park on his previous statements about birth control and the sexual licentiousness that birth control does make possible, but yet stating that “just because he’s talking about it doesn’t mean he wants a government program to fix it.  That’s not what (conservatives) do that’s what (liberals) do!”

Senator Santorum also took Mittens to the woodshed on his Obamacare attack.  It was beautiful.  Once again, Senator Santorum showed why he’s a very good second choice for me and for conservatives.  I believe he will govern as a conservative, he will take the fight to Obama if he’s our nominee.  Right now Santorum is my second choice…but it’s not by much. 

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Debate Winner: Rick Santorum

This race has heated up.  It’s starting to look like a two man race, but that can change on a dime in this campaign.  Either way, we must defeat Obama.  So let’s allow this race to decide the best available candidate, but at the end of the day each of these candidates has one major thing in common: Every one of them will be a better President than the one we have now.

The Republican field isn't perfect...no nominating field ever has been or will be.  But each one of them will repeal Obamacare, keep us safer than Obama, cut taxes and cut spending. 

In 2012, let's elect a new President, one who isn't bent
on taking America the way of Europe.

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Reactions to the Maine Caucuses

Saturday night, a week worth of caucuses in Maine concluded with Mitt Romney winning.   Maine’s Caucuses, like so many other caucus states, does not directly elect delegates to the Republican Convention this August, but rather elects delegates to municipal conventions who will then elect delegates who will do their best to see if they can locate Waldo.

In all seriousness, chances are that Mittens will get his share of the delegates, as will Ron Paul, who came in second, as well as Rick Santorum who came in third and Newt Gingrich who came in fourth.  Considering only Paul and Romney campaigned, this is about what should have been expected.  Maine was a state that Mitt had to have.  If Mittens can’t win New England, and I mean all of New England, in this primary season, he’s got issues.  Heck, prior to 1820, Mitt would’ve been the former Governor of the people of Maine*.   Yet Governor Romney got less than 40% of the vote.  His weakness is showing.

Caucus states remain Ron Paul’s strong suit.  His type of grassroots organization works wonderfully in caucuses.  Congressman Paul’s continuing to tally up the delegates and, I hope, is going to get his small government economic policy onto the GOP platform, regardless of who is the nominee. 

Newt’s my guy, but these last few primaries have been frustrating to me.  I think the lack of debates is hurting Newt.  He needs that platform.  That’s where Newt plays the best.  I’m glad that there are two debates coming up before the next few primaries.  There’s one a few days before Arizona and Michigan, and another right before Super Tuesday in early March, so Newt’s got the chance to get back on track.

Then there’s Rick Santorum.  Senator Santorum is showing the critics wrong, myself included, again.  He won all three contests last Tuesday.  He came in third in Maine, but that’s because he didn’t really spend time in Maine.  I’m here to tell you why he’s gaining is the same reason Newt gained a little bit ago…he’s effectively communicating conservatism.  If I can’t have my preferred choice for nominee, I’d be very happy to throw my support behind Santorum as a second choice.  To me it’s like finding out that there’s no lasagna left for dinner, and that I’ll have to settle for steak.

There’s a whole lot left to be decided.  These contests are going so many ways that it’s going to be a long time before we have a nominee.  We might even end up with a brokered convention.  (And if we do, so help the GOP if they throw up another establishment candidate.)  At the end of the day, however, what needs to be remembered above all else, is that any one of these four men would be 100x better than the President we have now. 

*Google that so you can find out how clever I am.

Reactions to the Nevada Caucuses

Saturday night the voters of Nevada caucused to decide the recipients of their 28 delegates.  Governor Mitt Romney won, as expected, and by about as much as predicted, as well as by as much as he won last time around.  He won Nevada in 2008 with 51%.  In 2012 it was 50%.   

One has to wonder if Republicans have finally stopped buying into the “Romney is the most electable” when he fell prey to the Drive-By Media’s usual ability to turn molehills into mountains and then hammer that moutainized molehill as if it was actually news.  This past week, it showed precisely what I’ve been saying for months: There is no candidate that is so clean as the wind driven snow that the Democrats and their willing accomplices in the Drive-By Media won’t attack them.  If there aren’t major attacks to be launched they will magnify something very small as if it were big.  If there isn’t anything small, they’ll invent something.  (Just ask Herman Cain.) 

Newt did just ok, with a second place finish of 21%.  This state was always Romney’s to lose but I wanted to see Newt do better.  He was polling higher than he finished, so this was a little bit disappointing.  I also believe the lack of debates isn’t helping.   Still, there’s hope for tomorrow’s primaries to do well for Newt, although he’s polling slightly behind Mittens in all of them and, in MN is actually a couple points behind Santorum as well.  He needs another comeback.   Again, if Rick Santorum would give up his lost cause campaign this would be a different story, but for now we’ve got Santorum splitting the conservative vote with Gingrich. Minnesota aside, if Santorum would get out of the way, we would be looking at a real race.  But with Senator Santorum dividing the vote we are likely to find ourselves stuck with Mittens.

Ron Paul did fairly well for himself, as expected.  I’ve said multiple times, caucus states do well for Paul and his scrappy band of very loyal followers.  In the early returns, Congressman Paul was in second place, but as returns continued to come in he fell down to third.  Given that the Congressman’s goal is most likely to garner as many delegates as possible, he made a decent showing for himself and picked up a few delegates to his name.

Finally we come to Senator Rick Santorum.  Unfortunately for Senator Santorum, he again came in fourth.  He has failed to gain the level of momentum he had in Iowa.  I maintain that it is time for the Senator to end his campaign and let the conservative vote consolidate behind Newt Gingrich, for if we are to have a nominee other than Mitt Romney it is going to be Newt.  Santorum does not have the support to mount a successful comeback at this late date.  It’s time for Santorum to hang it up and I must respectfully call for the Senator to end his campaign.

Nevada has spoken.  Three more states will speak on Tuesday.  There’s a whole lot of votes to be cast, and regardless of what the liberals and the RINOs are telling us, a long campaign is not going to make a difference in the general election.  As I’ve said before, look who the Democrats are running!  So let’s have the best candidate.  If it’s Romney, fine, make him sharpen his sword and practice his fencing against Gingrich.  Or, let us have a conservative, and his name will be Newt Gingrich.  Either way, the Democrats are running a poor candidate, a failed President who told us if he couldn’t right this economy in three years he’d be looking at a one term President, and we are here to collect.  So let the fight continue into Missouri, Colorado, and Minnesota. 

Reactions to the Florida Primary

Yesterday, Mitt Romney won the Florida Primary by a fairly comfortable margin, thus winning all of the state’s 50 primary delegates.  My candidate, Newt Gingrich, came in second, with Rick Santorum in a distant third and Ron Paul as the official Florida Caboose.

Mittens fought hard to win this one.  Ten days ago when he lost South Carolina, Newt had surged to the front of the Florida pack.  Then the debates happened.  Usually in this campaign, Newt has had Mitt and pretty much everyone else for lunch in the debates.  Yet not this time.  Mitt showed some backbone in the debates and actually showed some fight.  This battle is by no means over, but for Heaven’s sake Mittens, if you end up our nominee, you BETTER take this level of fight to Obama and not wuss out like John McCain did in 2008.  I mean it.  I want to see this kind of fight from you if you’re the nominee, because you will beat Obama if you fight like that.  If you wimp out, however, you can join Bob Dole and John McCain in the losers box at the Republican Conventions for the next three decades.

Speaker Gingrich fought hard in Florida, but it’s important to remember that Florida, regardless of its geography, is not culturally the South.  It’s one of the more moderate states.  So it’s not that surprising that Mittens would do well.  But the next six states are split down the middle between Newt and Mitt.  This fight is going to go on for a while.  As a sign at Newt HQ said last night, 46 States to go.

Which brings us to Rick Santorum.  Senator Santorum, I like you man.  I really do.  But it’s time for real reflection.  Since your win in Iowa, you’ve gotten 9% in New Hampshire, 16% in South Carolina and now 13% in Florida.  My friend, you are doing more to nominate Mitt Romney than pretty much anyone else.  We need to consolidate the conservative vote, and right now you don’t have the money or the support to be the consolidator.  It’s a two person race.  It’s a choice between the conservative Newt Gingrich and the more moderate Mitt Romney.  I’ve gone on record as saying you’d be a great Vice Presidential nominee for Newt.  But I have to say it: It’s time for you to get out and let the conservative vote consolidate. 

This primary showed that once again, this is going to be a long campaign.  It’s not a bad thing.  As I’ve continued to say, Barack Obama is infinitely beatable, as a matter of fact he is landslideable.  It’s ok for the Mitt and Newt to fight this out for a few months yet, the fools in the Democratic Party are going to run Obama!  So let’s fight this out and let the best man win.   

(Belated) Reactions to the CNN-FL Debate

To my regular readers:  I apologize for the delay in publishing my reactions to this debate.  I unfortunately found myself laid up with a stomach bug Thursday and Friday, so I was unable to publish this article until now.  Thank you as always for reading!

Thursday night, the four remaining Republican candidates for President meant for their 207^th Debate in the 2012 Election (give or take four or five).  The polls have shown Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich trading leads for the last couple weeks.  We know this debate will not be the last…although the 208^th Debate won’t be happening for nearly a month.  So this debate was a big one.  Not only is Florida the first winner-take-all Primary, but there are five primaries happening between now and the next debate.

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Newt Gingrich – Buy (Buy):   

Newt came out of South Carolina on Saturday the big winner.  20+% swung from Mittens to Newt, largely on the strength of the two debates leading up to South Carolina.  Now we’re on to Florida, with again two debates before the primary. 

At the beginning, Newt said something I’ve said again and again: Ronald Reagan was called “unelectable” too.  How’d that work out?  Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter in 1980.  That’s because real conservatism wins every time it’s effectively communicated.  That’s why Newt is rising, friends, he’s effectively communicating conservatism.

Mittens tried to go after Newt on his record, and Newt dodged and weaved with skill reminiscent of Mohammed Ali. I think he did a great job of responding to Mitt’s attacks.  I think Newt was more relaxed this debate, but do not confuse that for failure to be strong.  He had more of a Ronald Reagan “There you go again” mentality with Mittens, yet stronger.  He showed why he can absolutely smack down Obama’s guaranteed lies and spin in a way that will be convincing while also effectively communicating conservatism.

I heard Speaker Gingrich comment that it seemed like the Romney campaign filled the room with supporters at this debate.  When I heard it I thought to myself “Oh Newt…come on.”  Then I watched the debate.  Mitt got huge applause on baloney lines and for sounding like a jerk.  So maybe Newt was right after all.

I thought Newt did a pretty good job of dealing with the onslaught from Mittens, if you paid attention just to the volleys back and forth between the two and not to the decidedly pro-Mittens crowd (whether that was by design or by accident, I’ll leave that up to you to decide).  I think Newt was right to be absolutely furious with Mittens when Romney started complaining about false attacks from Newt, given how many false attacks that Mittens launched at Newt, especially in Iowa.  It was, of course, a bunch of baloney to hear Mitt start to get self-righteous about attacks when he’s been the greatest user of that sort of attacks and then he’s pretended it wasn’t him. 

As far as the idea of a private sector Space Race: First of all, it was made to be a silly concept, but of course it wasn’t silly when John F. Kennedy set the goal of putting a man on the moon.  Given a Newt’s concept, a fiscal prize setup for the company that got the job done, that wouldn’t be unbelievable.  Set a $10 Billion prize for the company that sets up a Lunar Colony and all of a sudden the private sector is going to get it done.  Is it a big idea?  Sure.  But this is a big idea country.  When Kennedy said we were going to put a man on the moon in ten years that was a big idea.  When Ronald Reagan said “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” it was a big idea.  When Thomas Jefferson commissioned Meriwether Lewis and William Clark on their expedition to the West Coast, it was a big idea.  When Abraham Lincoln authorized the creation of the Transcontinental Railroad, you guessed it, big idea.  I think you get the point. 

I felt the one great “Newt Moment” in this debate was when Newt talked about his faith and the need of God in his life.  Friends, that moment was the moment that showed what I keep saying when people ask me how can I back Newt given his moral failures:  Newt, like me, is a repentant sinner, saved by the grace of God through the blood of Jesus Christ.  The song says “Amazing Grace, how sweet the sound that saved a wretch like me, I once was lost but now I’m found, was blind but now I see.”  A close friend of mine owns a shirt that says “I’m the wretch the song refers to.”  Newt is a sinful man saved by grace who has repented of his sins and is now serving God, and I know what the Bible says, that Heaven rejoices more over one sinner who repents than hundreds who need not repent. 

Newt was good in this debate.  Unfortunately, I didn’t think he was great.  I wish he had been.  If Newt can win in Florida, it will be a big, big victory.  A great debate would’ve made that an almost certainty.  He didn’t have that, and unfortunately that could mean he doesn’t win Florida. 

And then, just as I was feeling a little glum about Newt, I got the tweet that Herman Cain would endorse Newt, and that’s a big endorsement for Speaker Gingrich.  Combine that with the endorsements this week with the endorsements of Michael Reagan and Nancy Reagan, Speaker Gingrich has some solid conservatives endorsing him.  Then Newt said something that, not surprisingly gave me chills.  He alluded to having Senator Marco Rubio in mind as a running mate.  I will not count out Newt in Florida, as of now I’d say it’s anyone’s game (between Newt and Mitt).

Ron Paul - Sold (Sold):        

Ron Paul was asked early on if he was going to run as a 3^rd Party candidate.  Congressman Paul has said over and over again that he won’t run 3^rd Party.  (I’ve got an article telling you why I will guarantee with almost absolute certainty that Ron Paul won’t run 3^rd Party…but I’ll make you read it when the news cycle allows.)  Rather, Congressman Paul showed really why he’s staying in this thing in his response about backing a theoretical nominee Speaker Gingrich:  He said that the Speaker has picked up on Congressman Paul’s beliefs on the Federal Reserve and a Gold Standard.  As I’ve said, Congressman Paul wants his policies on the 2012 Republican Platform, and if it’s economic and monetary policy, I absolutely welcome those policies.

Ah, Ron Paul.  Congressman Paul had his moments where I shook my head as he talked about Happy Imagination Land, for example, when talking about self-determination for nations when it comes to self-determining themselves into Communism and thus becoming our enemies and attacking their own people.  Then he talked about his fiscal policies and I stood up and cheered.  I’d love to see Congressman Paul in the new Republican Administration as the Treasury Secretary, or perhaps as the Chief of the Federal Reserve.  As I’ve said, I’m glad Congressman Paul is in my party, but I’m also glad he’s not going to be our nominee. 

Mitt Romney– Buy (Buy):   

Mitt tried to attack Newt.  I didn’t think it worked.  Honestly, it sounded like he was begging Republicans to settle for him.  Now I’d like to say that Mitt did not come off as strong in defending against Newt and was even weaker at attacking.  My friends, I’m not saying Mittens can’t beat Obama, because as I’ve said dozens of times, Foghorn Leghorn (R) will beat Obama.  Obama has been an awful President, and he’s going to lose.  So I won’t say that Mittens can’t win.  BUT, if Mitt’s going to be the Republican nominee, he’s got to get a whole lot stronger.  Or, Option B, we can simply NOT run a Rockefeller Republican (a better label I believe than “Massachusetts Moderate” in my opinion).

Mitt sounds Presidential when he’s given the chance to talk on his own about his policies and his free enterprise experience.  When he’s responding to attacks, he becomes less strong.  I love when Mitt says “I’m not going to apologize for being successful.”  He’s right.  Mitt earned his money.  He worked his tail off, he took risks, and he’s earned his wealth.  That’s called the American Dreams.  If Mitt becomes the nominee, he should thank Newt and Santorum for teaching him how to respond to those attacks.

Mitt, Mitt, Mitt.  You are just not going to make this easy on me if you’re the nominee, are you?  You really ticked me off in this debate.  He needed an “I believe in Harvey Dent” button on.  He gets indignant about attack ads, which I find the height of hypocrisy, because Mitt flat out knocked Newt out of the race in Iowa with those precise types of attack ads.  He had a pro-Romney crowd in that place.  Newt thought it was intentional.  Honestly, I can see how Newt felt that way.  Clearly, the Romney Attack machine has been working hard.

On the bright side, Mitt did deal with attacks in a way that will be necessary against Obama.  But Romneycare is going to be tough for Mittens against Obama.  I posted a commercial that Winning the Future PAC created about Obama’s Dream Debate (vs. Mittens) about Romneycare.  I think that’s going to be a tough, tough issue.  More importantly, we’ve got a stronger conservative available in this race. 

When Mitt wasn’t ticking me off he was Presidential and solid.  THAT Mitt I could get behind in a general election, if I can’t get my preferred, more conservative candidate.  Furthermore, if Mittens does use the same level of attacks on President Obama as he does on Newt, it’ll be a strong run and probably a landslide, but that’s because every single one of these candidates will beat Obama handily. 

Rick Santorum - Hold (Buy):

Ah Senator Santorum.  I like him.  I’m beginning to believe increasingly that he’d be a great George Bush (41) to Gingrich’s Reagan, while actually being genuinely conservative (which Bush 41 failed to be).  He’d be an excellent balanced to a guy like Newt.  As far as winning the nomination, Santorum has an uphill battle.  He doesn’t have the ability to use the retail politics that won Iowa in Florida and the upcoming states.  I think he’s back where I originally predicted him: a Vice Presidential option at best.

Santorum had a great debate.  I especially enjoyed when he made the point that Speaker Gingrich chose to use his experience to advise Fannie Mae and Governor Romney worked hard and earned his money and is very wealthy.  Senator Santorum was correct.  He did a fine job and I’m going to say this officially: Gingrich/Santorum 2012.  There.  I said it.  I think Senator Santorum would be the perfect running mate for Newt if he was our nominee. 

I like Santorum.  I like when he talks about his faith, because he, (like Newt and Ron Paul) are my brothers in Jesus Christ.  (I’m not going to delve into the differences between Christianity and Mormonism and why Mitt Romney and I do not share the same faith, save to say that my Jesus isn’t the same Jesus that Mormonism teaches.  Email me if you’d like a further explanation.)

I do suspect we’ll see Santorum drop out of the race after Florida, given the fact that he’s polling at one third of what Gingrich and Romney are getting.  I only hope he does right by the conservative values he espouses and endorses Gingrich. 

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I watched this debate hearing how Mittens took it to Newt and how Mittens won the debate hands down.  I watched this and purposely did not judge based on audience reaction, and I honestly did not agree. Honestly, I didn’t think you could call any one man the winner of that debate, so I won’t.

Florida is going to be interesting.  Romney’s attacks are working, but not as well as they did in Iowa, mainly because Newt’s got the bank roll to fight back. Either way, this is going to be a long fight.  Remember, only three states have voted and Florida is the fourth.  So far Mittens has 33 delegates and Newt has 25, out of 700+ needed to win.  Florida is a fairly large prize at 50 delegates, but remember there are still 46 states left to vote.  So whether Newt wins or Mitt wins, there will still be a long drawn out fight in front of us.  Time will tell the rest.   

Reactions to the NBC-Florida Debate

Last night, NBC hosted a debate in Florida, the first of two this week.  First and foremost, I want to give NBC the award for stupidest debate presentation ever.  What is below is the TV Guide for LAST NIGHT as of 6 pm:

That’s right, gang, not only did NBC NOT list the debate as “Republican Debate” or some other such thing but instead listed it as “Rock Center with Brian Williams” (yeah, the place where the debate was held)…they also did not actually LIST THE THING as starting at 9!  Nope, the TV guide showed “Fear Factor.”  Brilliant, NBC, brilliant.

In all seriousness, NBC is either run by the biggest dunces in the history of ever or they were trying to under promote this thing (after all, a real conservative is winning and gaining support from debates.)  Honestly, I’m inclined to believe that it’s both.

Now to the moderators: I’m going to give Brian Williams some credit.  I believe he did a pretty good job of being fair.  He brought up the pertinent issues of the debate and actually gave the candidates a chance to respond to each other’s attacks.  I also appreciate him letting Gingrich and Romney go back and forth. 

Now, let’s take the time to play a game of Buy, Hold, Sell and Sell All.  In addition, I’ve included another comment for each candidate; what individual(s) I believe would be the perfect Vice Presidential nominee if that candidate was our Presidential nominee:

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Newt Gingrich – Buy (Buy):   

First of all, Newt hit the cover off the ball with his response to the “open marriage” accusations from his ex-wife.  The reality is exes can say false things because divorce can be a painful thing.  But he answered it perfectly. He shut down this so fast it should give the Drive-By Media whiplash.  The Media will try their best to pin this story, but it simply is a distraction and Newt is going to give the Drive-Bys the kind of smackdown they deserve and that most conservatives fail to give.  He got a standing ovation from the live audience for his response.  It was absolutely the best response to such attacks I have seen in now 19 years and nine national elections of paying close attention. 

Beyond that, Newt had another very good debate.  His moments were excellent.  He really showed himself to be the Newt that I endorsed three weeks ago.  I would love to see him debate Obama, and I believe he will mop the floor with the Bamster in 2012 if he’s our nominee.  Don’t buy into the “unelectable” line, friends.  The same type of pundits said Reagan was unelectable.  Conservatism wins, and Newt will win if he’s the nominee.

Newt came out of South Carolina on Saturday the big winner.  20+% swung from Mittens to Newt, largely on the strength of the two debates leading up to South Carolina.  Now we’re on to Florida, with again two debates before the primary. 

At the beginning, Newt said something I’ve said again and again: Ronald Reagan was called “unelectable” too.  How’d that work out?  Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter in 1980.  That’s because real conservatism wins every time it’s effectively communicated.  That’s why Newt is rising, friends, he’s effectively communicating conservatism.

Mittens tried to go after Newt on his record, and Newt dodged and weaved with skill reminiscent of Mohammed Ali. I think he did a great job of responding to Mitt’s attacks.  I think Newt was more relaxed this debate, but do not confuse that for failure to be strong.  He had more of a Ronald Reagan “There you go again” mentality with Mittens, yet stronger.  He showed why he can absolutely smack down Obama’s guaranteed lies and spin in a way that will be convincing while also effectively communicating conservatism.

Best Running Mate:  Rick Santorum, LA Governor Bobby Jindall – (Both would bring a calm but strongly conservative balance to Newt’s attack dog style).

(Or, FL Senator Marco Rubio.)

Ron Paul - Sold (Sold):        

Hey…Ron Paul was at this debate!  I kid, but Congressman Paul was somewhat to the side of the three way battles that happened between Gingrich, Santorum and Romney, and sometimes he contributed some really great points.  Like his statement about the cost of a Made in China product vs. a Made in America product.  (I’ve noted before that a Made in America iPod, for example, would cost over $1000, and that’s for a 2 GB one.)  It was an excellent metaphor for the Paul campaign.  He’s here to promote ideas.  I think Congressman Paul knows that he’s not going to be the nominee, but he’s in this to rack up as many delegates as he can to force his ideas onto the platform, and provided they are the economic policies I want Ron Paul ideas on the platform. 

Side note: I never realized Dr. Paul practiced medicine as an OBG/YN…in my mind’s eye I saw him as a family practice doctor…and honestly (and yes, I know this is silly, I don’t hold any credence to this thought)…it’s just a weird thought to wrap my head around. 

Ron Paul was asked early on if he was going to run as a 3^rd Party candidate.  Congressman Paul has said over and over again that he won’t run 3^rd Party.  (I’ve got an article telling you why I will guarantee with almost absolute certainty that Ron Paul won’t run 3^rd Party…but I’ll make you read it when the news cycle allows.)  Rather, Congressman Paul showed really why he’s staying in this thing in his response about backing a theoretical nominee Speaker Gingrich:  He said that the Speaker has picked up on Congressman Paul’s beliefs on the Federal Reserve and a Gold Standard.  As I’ve said, Congressman Paul wants his policies on the 2012 Republican Platform, and if it’s economic and monetary policy, I absolutely welcome those policies.

Best Running Mate Options:  FL Congressman (Colonel) Allen West – West would give Paul what he would desperately need…military strength.  Colonel West would be a perfect option.

(Or, FL Senator Marco Rubio.)

Mitt Romney– Buy (Buy):   

Mitt kicked off this debate talking about capitalism.  He reminded me again why, if I can’t have my preferred candidate, I can live with Mittens. He did an excellent job of articulating the difference between conservatism and what President Obama believes.  We believe that it’s good to take risk with money and make a profit.  We believe it’s good for those who take risks to make a profit, because that profit goes into purchasing goods and services and often gets reinvested into that company and that means jobs either way.  Capitalism and investment are good things.  Business is what create jobs, not government. 

Mitt said something last night that I’ve been waiting for him to say: “I’m not going to apologize for being successful.”  Amen!  Mitt should not apologize for succeeding.  He is a man who has worked hard, taken risks, and succeeded, and he should be proud of it.

Mitt tried to attack Newt.  I didn’t think it worked.  Honestly, it sounded like he was begging Republicans to settle for him.  Now I’d like to say that Mitt did not come off as strong in defending against Newt and was even weaker at attacking.  My friends, I’m not saying Mittens can’t beat Obama, because as I’ve said dozens of times, Foghorn Leghorn (R) will beat Obama.  Obama has been an awful President, and he’s going to lose.  So I won’t say that Mittens can’t win.  BUT, if Mitt’s going to be the Republican nominee, he’s got to get a whole lot stronger.  Or, Option B, we can simply NOT run a Rockefeller Republican (a better label I believe than “Massachusetts Moderate” in my opinion).

Mitt sounds Presidential when he’s given the chance to talk on his own about his policies and his free enterprise experience.  When he’s responding to attacks, he becomes less strong.  I love when Mitt says “I’m not going to apologize for being successful.”  He’s right.  Mitt earned his money.  He worked his tail off, he took risks, and he’s earned his wealth.  That’s called the American Dreams.  If Mitt becomes the nominee, he should thank Newt and Santorum for teaching him how to respond to those attacks.

Best Running Mate Options:  SC Governor Nikki Haley, LA Governor Bobby Jindall - Both would give Mitt a strong Tea Party running mate to shore up the conservative base as well as a Southern support. 

(Or, FL Senator Marco Rubio.)

Rick Santorum - Hold (Buy):

Santorum gave Mittens a smack on Romneycare and really nailed it.  He also went after Newt on the topic.  I felt the punch landed with Mittens and hit the gloves on Newt. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, in boxing when a boxer blocks an incoming punch from his opponent.  Newt blocked it.)  When Newt responded, I watched the split screen between Newt and Santorum, and Santorum had a look of “oh darn he handled that” when Newt responded. 

Overall, Senator Santorum had a strong debate. He was good.  He came across as strong and solid, and believe me I would be fine with a President Santorum.  I did like Senator Santorum’s response to the tax release question: “I do my own taxes and I’m not at home.  They’re on my computer.  When I get home you’ll get them.”

I’ve commented that Governor Romney sounds Presidential.  Senator Santorum sounds like a great #2.  He sounds like a Vice President.  I do like the idea of Rick Santorum as Vice President.  He’d be a good strategic move because he can bring in Pennsylvania.  The only better Vice Presidential options I can think of are Michelle Bachmann (who can truly bag the Tea Party vote), Herman Cain (if he’s not so damaged after the baloney smear scandal) and…legitimate shivers of excitement…Senator Marco Rubio.  If I get my wish and Newt Gingrich is the nominee, a Vice Presidential nominee like Santorum would be a good balance.  If Mittens is the guy, we’ll need someone like Bachmann. 

One final note on Senator Santorum.  I realized something last night: Of all the candidates remaining, I do believe I LIKE Rick Santorum as a person the best.  He does seem like a genuinely kind, good hearted Christian man, the type of person who I’d love to have as my next door neighbor.  In a different time (like following a transformational President who got this country going strong again) he’d be a good President. 

Ah Senator Santorum.  I like him.  I’m beginning to believe increasingly that he’d be a great George Bush (41) to Gingrich’s Reagan, while actually being genuinely conservative (which Bush 41 failed to be).  He’d be an excellent balanced to a guy like Newt.  As far as winning the nomination, Santorum has an uphill battle.  He doesn’t have the ability to use the retail politics that won Iowa in Florida and the upcoming states.  I think he’s back where I originally predicted him: a Vice Presidential option at best.

Best Running Mate Options: MN Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann  or KY Senator Rand Paul – Senator Santorum would need excitement behind him, the Tea Party, and a powerful attack dog and the power of the Tea Party.  Bachmann would bring all three. 

(Or, FL Senator Marco Rubio.)

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Debate Winner: Newt Gingrich, by a nose (over Mitt Romney)

Florida has swung to Newt Gingrich in the most recent polls after his South Carolina win.  I felt Newt at least maintained his momentum tonight.  It’s going to be interesting, and it’s tough rounds to call right now.