If the Obama Campaign Isn't Worried, They Should Be

Sorry so late today, Biblical Conservatives! Had a personal issue that kept me on the shelf all morning, but here's today's dose of Biblical Conservatism!

Despite what a few Drive-By Media skewed polls are now showing, Obama had better start worrying.

Let's start with a few reasons:

- Florida is now clearly moving to Romney's territory. A Rasmussen Poll released on Friday shows Romney leading Obama by 5% and over 50%.

- North Carolina is now being considered by Real Clear Politics as no longer a tossup but in the Romney column.

- Virginia is becoming more and more clearly in the Romney camp. It's been two full weeks since a poll showed Obama leading in Virginia.

- The Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" now puts all three of these three states in the Romney camp.

- The Real Clear Politics Electoral Map shows Romney leading Obama (map does not include any tossup states).

- Except for one anomalous poll (same poll in both), Iowa and Wisconsin are within the margin of error.

- A new poll now has Romney winning Pennsylvania by 4%.


- So many voters remain undecided at this stage in the game, and historically, undecideds break hard for the challenger.

- One final note. Two weeks ago, the Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" looked like this:

Today it looks like this:

No amount of tiny poll fluctuations will change the fact that the President should be worried. VERY worried, because Mitt Romney is on the precipice of victory in 15 days.



Since tonight is the final Presidential debate, tomorrow's article will go up about 1 pm EST. Thanks for reading!

Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 2)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's continue to look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?


Wisconsin - RCP Avg: Obama + 6.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+6%

Wisconsin Voter Registration: +4% Democrat

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +7% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

- For NBC to get Obama to +5% they had to oversample Democrats by +5%

- For CBS to get Obama to +6%, they had to oversample Democrats by +8%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Virginia - RCP Avg Obama +3.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample +3% Democrat

Virginia Voter Registration: +3% Republican- For NBC to get Obama to +2%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For Suffolk to get Obama to +2% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)


In Wisconsin, to get Obama to a +6.7% average lead they had to oversample Democrats by an average of 6%. Again, assuming 90% of undersampled Republicans reweighted will give you a much smaller Obama lead of 1.1%, well within the margin of error.

In Virginia, when you take that 3.7% lead and the 3% oversample of Democrats to get to even (or 6% oversample of Democrats against