Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Before the New Hampshire Primaries

Today is the day of the nation’s first Primary in New Hampshire.  I think everyone, including me, will be surprised if Mitt Romney doesn’t win this thing.  It’s definitely Mittens’ primary to lose.  That being said, it’s very interesting to see how everyone else will break out.  Jon Huntsman, my perpetual humorous whipping boy for being a joke of a candidate, has thrown all his chips into New Hampshire.  He hasn’t polled higher than third and even then it’s a far third.  Ron Paul is going to get pretty much what he’s going to get everywhere, 15-20% or so.  He’s got his supporters and that’s going to be it. 
Which brings us to my candidate, Newt Gingrich.  Newt is finally going after Mittens, but I don’t think he’s got enough time to make a difference in New Hampshire.  South Carolina is a different story.  I do think there’s a good chance to topple Mitt there.  (Implied in that statement of course is the phrase “I hope.”)  Newt needs to rebound hard, if not in New Hampshire than in South Carolina. 
Finally, there’s Rick Santorum.  Most recent polls show him in either third or fourth place in New Hampshire.  I do believe this may be par for the course for Senator Santorum.  It took retail politics to do as well as he did in Iowa, and I do not think his Iowa momentum will keep going.  I think Gingrich’s finally getting off the bench to respond to Romney’s attacks and to deal with Romney’s shortcomings are going to take back some of Santorum’s “Not Romney” support.
New Hampshire matters because it’s the first Primary, but again let’s again remember that only 12 delegates will be decided tomorrow, and that proportionally distributed. Based on the most recent New Hampshire polls, given proportional distribution, you can expect Romney to gain 4-5 delegates, Ron Paul to gain 2-3 delegates, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum to each gain 1-2 delegates, and Rick Perry to gain one or none.  Bottom line, New Hampshire won’t mean that much, no matter who wins. 
Today is New Hampshire.  We’ll know more tonight.  Please remember I’ll wait until Thursday to give full New Hampshire analysis in order to give a well thought out response.  In the mean time, remember what the great Yogi Berra said: “It ain’t over ‘till it’s over.”


  1. Wow, did you ever underestimate Paul...the most Christian candidate out there because he doesn't want to bomb people into the stone age.

  2. Newt is far more of a biblical conservative. He believes in the importance of pre-emptive war, which if I'm not mistaken was one of the Beatitudes. Plus, the fact that he's a serial adulterer, that this man is willing to spread love irrespective of his marital status, shows how pious he is.

  3. Sloopyinca:

    I don't think I underestimated Paul much at all. I said he would get at most 20% of the vote. He got 22%.

    As far as "bombing people to the stone age...I think you might want to read the Old Testament before believing that Christianity is a "peace at any cost" religion. Sometimes war is necessary to achieve peace.

  4. Jacob:

    Noah was a drunk, Paul was a murder, Peter denied his best friend in his moment of greatest trial, King David was an adulterer, King Saul was a womanizer, Moses was also a murderer, ten of the twelve patriarchs were guilty of attempted fratricide, Judah was a solicitor of prostitues...

    Yep. No room in Christianity for repentant sinners, right?

    As far as premptive war: The invasion of Caanan in the Bible...wouldn't THAT be considered "preemptive" by your standard? There are others as well.

    But hey...don't bother to read the Bible before you make your wild claims in order to try to make a sarcastic rhetorical point...

  5. For the record, I do not doubt Ron Paul's Christian faith. Just want that to be clear.


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