Last night Mitt Romney narrowly won the Iowa Caucuses by an eight vote margin over surging Rick Santorum. Tomorrow I'll give my breakdown of the results in an effort to give the best possible analysis rather than a hastily put together one.
The candidate I have endorsed, Newt Gingrich, came in foruth place last night. Some feel this is a dissappointing showing for Newt, given that he was winning Iowa handily according to polls only a few weeks ago. Then Mitt Romney and others went negative against Newt and Newt began to slide. At least that's what the pundits in both the Conservative and Drive-By Media classes have been telling us.
But if you look at the calendar and see when Newt began to drop off you'll notice it coincides with the last debate on December 15th. If you also look at the calendar, you'll see two debates this weekend prior to the New Hampshire Primary, two debates the week before the South Carolina Primary and two debates the week before the Florida Primary. South Carolina and Florida, I believe, are far more important because New Hampshire is Romney's to lose. (Recent polling shows him with a commanding lead in the Granite State.) However, in the most recent South Carolina polls, Newt has a solid lead and in the most recent Florida polls, Newt is basically tied with Romney.
Gingrich just needs something to put him over the top against Mittens, and I think two debates the weeks before each debate (four total) will be just the thing Newt needs to beat Mitt. There are also two debates immediately before Super Tuesday in March.
Here's my point: I believe Gingrich is going to rebound nicely. It isn't over, no matter how many times the Republican Establishment tries to cram Mittens down our throats or how many times the Drive-By Media pretends the race is over. Remember, nearly 3/4 of Iowa voters voted against Mitt. There's still many votes to be cast, including the critical South Carolina and Florida primaries in a couple weeks, where Newt remains strong. Combine that with four debates where voters can remember why they love Newt, I think he's going to rebound.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
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Also, if you add that Santorum and Paul polled better in Iowa then the vast majority of states, including the ones that are next in the primaries, then you would expect a huge surge in Newt's numbers as we move on to other states, especially with both Perry and Bachman bowing out of the race.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all Perry hasn't bowed out.
ReplyDeleteI do agree that Newt will surge again. Santorum will see some of that support however.
Perry is reassessing. 9.8 times out of ten that means he'll bow out. Santorum has spent almost all his time campaigning on the ground in Iowa. He wont be able to keep up that pace. While some of Bachman and Perry will go to Santorum more will go to Newt I think
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